Diamondbacks vs. Padres, 05/20/17 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#912 San Diego Padres
vs.
#911 Arizona Diamondbacks

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Arizona Diamondbacks (24-18) vs. San Diego Padres (15-27)

MLB Baseball:  Saturday, May 20th, 10:10 pm EST

Robbie Ray (2-3, 4.57 ERA) vs. Luis Perdomo (0-0, 4.19 ERA)

Line:  Arizona -110/San Diego +100

Total: 7.5

The Diamondbacks play the middle game of a three game series in San Diego on Saturday night.  The now second place Diamondbacks have a nine game lead over the Padres, who sit at last place in the NL West.  Arizona is coming off a three game sweep of the New York Mets and as the Dodgers lost two of three to the rival Giants, the Diamondbacks were able to pass Los Angeles for second place in the division.

The Padres look like they might be looking at another last place finish in the NL West this season.  For the last several years, they have consistently been near the bottom of the standings, and it doesn’t look it’s getting better any time soon.  The teams above them have better young talent than the Padres, which doesn’t bode well for their future.

Diamondbacks sweep the Mets

The Diamondbacks started the week off with a three game sweep of the New York Mets, allowing them to jump into second place in the NL West.  They beat the Mets  7-3 on Monday, and then won back to back 5-4 games on Tuesday and Wednesday, winning the last one in extra innings.  The three game winning streak pushed them to 24-18 and some people are starting to think they will be in the division race all season long.  I still have m doubts.

On Friday, Robbie Ray gets the start, and he has been only average this year.  He is 2-3 with an ERA in the mid four’s, and is coming off a lousy start in which he gave up six hits and four earned runs over four innings in a start against the Pirates.  He didn’t take the loss, but he’s now given up nine earned runs over his last two starts.

Padres turn to Perdomo

The Padres turn to Luis Perdomo on Saturday night, as the right hander tries to pick up his first win of the year.  Amazingly, he has made six starts now and has yet to earn a win or a loss.  Six starts, six no decisions.  He pitched fairly well in his latest, going six innings and giving up three earned runs.  That’s nothing to write home about, but he did strikeout nine batters so I classify it as a decent start.

In the six starts he’s made he’ allowed five earned runs once, three earned runs three times, and one earned run twice.  He really could have anywhere from one to four wins.  The problem is with the Padres anemic offense, he’s not going to get bailed out very often by their hitting prowess.  Let’s see if they can help him out on Saturday.

MLB Trends:

The Arizona Diamondbacks are:

  • 1-4 in their last 5 Saturday games.
  • 19-40 in their last 59 road games.
  • 0-4 in Rays last 4 starts on grass.

The San Diego Padres are:

  • (no trends available)

Let’s go with an upset here.  The Diamondbacks aren’t as good a team as their record indicates, and I don’t trust them on the road.  This will be a weekend game in San Diego which will hopefully bring a lot of fans.  Let’s watch as the Padres send them home happy with a nice Luis Perdomo start.

Pick: San Diego

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Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.