Rockies vs. Reds, 05/20/17 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#907 Colorado Rockies
vs.
#908 Cincinnati Reds

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Colorado Rockies (26-16; 17-25 O/U) vs. Cincinnati Reds (19-21; 23-15-2 O/U)

MLB: Saturday, May 20, 2017 at 4:10pm EST

Line: Cincinnati -110/Colorado +100

Total: 9.5

The Cincinnati Reds will collide with the Colorado Rockies in the second game of a three game series Saturday afternoon from the Great American Ball Park. The Rockies will hand the ball to 22-year old right-hander Antonio Senzatela, and the Reds will counter with 29-year old right-hander Tim Adleman. The Reds won five of seven over the Rockies last season.

Senzatela Shooting for Fourth Consecutive Victory

Antonio Senzatela will take the mound for the ninth time of the season, looking to boost his record to 7-1. Senzatela didn’t have his best stuff in his previous start, conceding four runs including two homers in five innings to the Dodgers, but still managed to notch the victory. The rookie right-hander is off to a tremendous start to his MLB career, posting a 3.31 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 49 innings pitched. Senzatela has pitched into the sixth inning or later in six of his eight starts and features a .240 opponent batting average. Carlos Gonzalez is slowly showing signs of coming around at the plate after a shockingly slow start. The 31-year old slugger has notched five RBI’s over his last nine games and has tallied eight hits over his last six games, but is still hitting only .210 with two home runs and 11 RBI’s on the season. Gonzalez was productive against the Reds last season, going 10 for 26 with three homers and seven RBI’s in seven games.

The dangerous Rockies lineup is now scoring an average of 4.74 runs per game, ranking them 13th in the Major Leagues, and feature a .256 team batting average. The Colorado pitching has been average, recording a 4.19 team ERA, placing them 16th overall.

Adleman Aims for Third Straight Home Win

Tim Adleman will make his seventh appearance and sixth start of the season, looking to rebound from his shortest outing of the season. Adleman allowed four runs (three earned),and was pulled after one inning with neck tightness against the Giants in his previous start. The young right-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but one start this season but has failed to pitch deep into the game. He owns a weak 5.27 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP to go with a 2-2 record. Adleman, who will be making his first career start against the Rockies, has conceded seven homers in his 27.1 innings of work, equating to a 2.30 HR/9 ratio. Joey Votto is showing no signs of slowing down at the plate, smashing two home runs along with nine RBI’s over his last nine games, and is hitting .352 this month. The career .312 hitter is having a tremendous season, hitting .292 with 11 home runs and 35 RBI’s on the season. Votto belted two homers along with five RBI’s in seven games against the Rockies last year.

The Reds solid lineup is now averaging 4.90 runs per game, good for tenth in the Majors, and  are hitting .263 as a team. The Cincinnati pitching has been below average, registering a 4.48 team ERA, positioning them 23rd in the Major Leagues.

Trends:

The Colorado Rockies are:

  • 7-1 in Senzatela’s last 8 starts.
  • 8-1 in their last 9 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • 5-1 in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record.

The Cincinnati Reds are:

  • 0-6 in their last 6 games overall heading into Friday’s action.
  • 0-5 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter.

I am siding with the Rockies in this contest. Senzatela features an excellent 2.50 ERA in his three road starts this season, and he has received a ton of run sport, so I am confident backing Senzatela and the Rockies. Also, Adleman has not been going deep into games, and the Reds are really struggling right now. Overall I like the Rockies offense over the Reds, and Senzatela has been the better pitcher.

Pick: Colorado Rockies +100

Both starters have been reasonably consistent this season, and both bullpens have also been dependable. Senzatela has been outstanding on the road, where opponents are hitting only .234 against him, so he should limit the Reds offense, and the under is 12-5 in the Rockies last 17 road games. Adleman owns a solid 3.43 ERA at home, and the Reds bullpen has been strong, plus the under is 4-1 in the Rockies last five games against a right-handed starter.

Pick: Under 9.5

5

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.