Indians vs. Twins, 06/16/17 - Prediction & Preview

Game Snapshot

#974 Minnesota Twins
vs.
#973 Cleveland Indians

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Cleveland Indians (31-31; 24-35-3 O/U) vs. Minnesota Twins (33-29; 29-28-5 O/U)

MLB: Friday, June 16, 2017 at 8:10pm EST

Line: Cleveland -165/Minnesota +155

Total: 9.5

The Minnesota Twins will host the Cleveland Indians as the rivals open a four game divisional series Friday evening from Target Field. The Indians will send 30-year old right-hander Carlos Carrasco to the mound, and the Twins will turn to 27-year old left-hander Nik Turley. The Indians lead the season series 4-2.

Carrasco Aims for Fifth Road Win of Season

Carlos Carraso will take the mound for his 13th start of the season, looking to improve his record to 7-3. Carrasco allowed two runs in 5.1 innings to the White Sox in his previous start and recorded the victory to bring his record to 6-3. The veteran right-hander is having another strong season, sporting a 3.36 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 75 innings of work. The Twins have given him some trouble throughout his career as he owns a  2-6 record with a 4.74 ERA in 62.2 innings. Joe Mauer is 11 for 22 against Carrasco, while Brian Dozier is 4 for 21 with seven RBI’s, and Miguel Sano is 4 for 10. Carlos Santana has done good damage against the Twins this season, going 8 for 24 with one homer and four RBI’s. The 31-year old first baseman is only hitting .125 this month, however overall he is having a decent season, hitting .211 with eight home runs and 35 RBI’s. Santana is hitting only .167 against left-handers compared to a .240 average against right-handed pitching.

The Indians are now averaging 4.44 runs per game, ranking them down at 21st overall, and own a .245 team batting average. The Cleveland pitching has been strong, featuring a 4.06 team ERA, placing them 10th in the Majors.

Turley Targets First Major League Win

Nik Turley will make his second career start in this one, aiming for his first win. Turley was shaky in his debut five days ago, allowing four runs in four innings to the Giants, finishing with the no decision. The 6-foot-4 left-hander spent time in both Double and Triple-A this season and looked good, posting a cumulative 2.05 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP  in 52.2 innings pitched. Turley has spent the last eight years in the Minors before finally reaching the Big Leagues. Brian Dozier is swinging a hot bat, belting three homers with seven RBI’s over his last nine games. The 30-year old second baseman won’t reach his career-highs in homers or RBI’s from last season, currently hitting .251 with 11 home runs and 29 RBI’s. Dozier has collected a hit in only 4 of 22 at bats with zero RBI’s against the Indians this season. Despite having the worst bullpen ERA (5.42) in the Majors, the Twins continue to win games and remain first in the AL Central.

The Twins are currently averaging 4.81 runs per game, ranking them 12th in the Majors, and are hitting .257 as a team. The Minnesota pitching has not been good, posting a weak 4.91 team ERA, positioning them 27th in the Majors.

Trends:

The Cleveland Indians are:

  • over is 5-1 in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
  • over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.

The Minnesota Twins are:

  • over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against a right-handed starter.
  • over is 8-2 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

I am taking the over in this matchup. Carrasco has had a tough time against the Twins, posting a 4.74 career ERA and the Twins lineup is hitting a combined .292 against him, so I expect some runs from Minnesota, Also, Turley allowed four runs in four innings in his MLB debut, so the Indians should get to the rookie. Turley won’t go deep into the game  and the Twins bullpen owns a Major League worst 5.42 ERA, so we should see plenty of runs in this contest.

Pick: Over 9.5

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.