Brewers vs. Padres, 06/17/17 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#907 San Diego Padres
vs.
#908 Milwaukee Brewers

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San Diego Padres (27-40; 35-28-4 O/U) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (36-32; 39-26-3 O/U)

MLB: Saturday, June, 17, 2017 at 4:10pm EST

Line: Milwaukee -143/San Diego +133

Total: 9.5

The Milwaukee Brewers will meet with the San Diego Padres in the second game of a three game set Saturday night from Miller Park. The Padres will send 24-year old right-hander Dinelson Lamet to the mound, and the Brewers will turn to 29-year right-hander Chase Anderson. The Brewers took three of four in San Diego last month.

Lamet Rocked by Royals in Second Straight Loss

Dinelson Lamet will make his fifth start of the season, looking to rebound from another tough outing. Lamet surrendered seven runs including three homers in five innings to the Royals in his previous start, and was charged with his second straight loss. The rookie right-hander looked good in his first two starts however he has struggled over his last two outings, bringing his ERA to 8.50 to go along with a 1.56 WHIP and a 2-2 record in 18 innings pitched. Lamet, who is the Padres tenth ranked prospect, has already allowed six homers and nine walks over his four starts.  Yangervis Solarte is swinging a red hot bat, belting two home runs along with eight RBI’s over his last nine games. The 29-year old second baseman has clearly found his swing after a slow month of May, currently hitting .262 with six home runs and a team-leading 35 RBI’s. Solarte has recorded a hit in 3 of 12 at bats with one RBI against the Brewers this season. 

The low-scoring Padres are currently averaging a Major League low 3.63 runs per game, and are hitting a weak .230 as a team. The San Diego pitching is also struggling, posting a 4.91 team ERA, positioning them 28th in the Major Leagues.

Anderson Shutout Streak Ends in Loss to D-Backs

Chase Anderson will get the call for the 14th time of the season, looking to continue his outstanding pitching. Anderson had his shutout streak snapped in his previous start, however he held the Diamondbacks to one run in six innings but received no run support and took the loss. The third-year right-hander is having an outstanding season, now featuring a stifling 2.83 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP to go with a 5-2 record in 76.1 innings logged. He faced the Padres last month and conceded four runs in 5.1 innings, and now sits at 3-1 with a 4.02 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego. Erick Aybar is 1 for 9 against Anderson, while Wil Myers is 4 for 9 ,and Yangervis Solarte is 2 for 11. Travis Shaw continues to drive in runs at a rapid pace, recording another 10 RBI’s over his last eight games. The 27-year old third baseman is having a tremendous season, hitting .302 with 11 home runs and a team-leading 46 RBI’s. Shaw is 3 for 7 with one RBI against the Padres this season.

The Brewers potent lineup is currently averaging 4.91 runs per game, ranking them eighth in the Majors, and feature a .252 team batting average. The Milwaukee pitching owns a 4.26 team ERA, placing them 15th in the Major Leagues.

Trends:

The San Diego Padres are:

  • 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning record.
  • 0-6 in their last 6 Saturday games.
  • 7-20 in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record.
  • 16-39 in their last 55 road games.

The Milwaukee Brewers are:

  • 6-2 in Anderson’s last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his previous appearance.

I am definitely going with the Brewers in this contest. Anderson is on an incredible run, conceding only one run over his last four starts (27.2 innings), and he features a dominant 1.69 ERA at Miller Park this season, so he should be able to shut down the worst lineup in baseball. Also, Lamet has now surrendered seven runs in back-to-back starts, so I expect the strong Brewers lineup to have a big night at the plate and take this one easily.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -143

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.