Indians vs. Giants, 07/17/17 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#925 Cleveland Indians
#926 San Francisco Giants

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Cleveland Indians (47-43) vs. San Francisco Giants (35-58)

MLB Baseball:  Monday, July 17th, 10:15 pm EST

Josh Tomlin (5-9, 5.90 ERA)  vs.  Matt Moore (3-9, 6.04 ERA)

Line:  Cleveland -125/San Francisco +115

Total: 8.5

The Indians take on the Giants in the opening game of a three game series.  If you had penciled this series in before the year, you would have assumed that these were two teams that would be battling for wild card or division titles.  Unfortunately, that is true of only one of the two teams.  Although the defending AL champion Indians haven’t played their best this year, it’s been enough to lead them to the AL Central lead thus far.

The Giants are a different story.  They made the playoffs last year and were very close to pushing the Cubs to a fifth game in the NLDS before giving up a three run lead in the ninth inning.  This year, they have had the season from hell and are in last place in the NL West, with their rival Dodgers running away with it.

Tomlin gets the start

The Indians turn to Josh Tomlin on Monday, looking to get his season back on the right track.  He’s struggled for most of the year and comes into the game with a record of 5-9 and an ERA of 5.90.  He did put one of his better starts of the year in his latest, however, going seven innings and giving up only four hits and two earned runs in the win over the Padres.

It stopped  a streak of four straight games where he had allowed four earned runs or more and a streak of six straight games where he allowed three earned runs or more.  Now we’ll see if he can get going again, for a team that desperately needs him.

Moore has been terrible

Yes, I’m picking the Giants to win this game.  And yes, Matt Moore has been terrible.  Those aren’t mutually exclusive.  Moore seems to pitch better at home and even with the poor record, I think the home fans will be into the first game at home of the second half.  I think Moore will pitch well against an up and down offense on Monday.

Now, for the bad news.  He’s 3-9 on the season with an ERA over six.  His walks this season have been downright atrocious, totaling 41 in 98 innings.  He’s also allowed 15 home runs and has only a 2/1, K/BB ratio.  He’s lost five of his last six decision and has won only one of his last 10 starts.  And yet, I kind of like him on Monday.

MLB Trends:

The Cleveland Indians are:

  • 7-19 in their last 26 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • 3-14 in their last 17 interleague games.

The San Francisco Giants are:

  • 8-3 in their last 11 Monday games.
  • 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

This is the Giants first home game of the second half of the season, and although they stink this year, the home fans will be loud for this game and I think it will help a struggling Matt Moore.  I expect him to pitch well and earn the win.

Pick: San Francisco

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Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.