Marlins vs. Phillies, 07/17/17 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#907 Philadelphia Phillies
vs.
#908 Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies (29-60; 40-42-7 O/U) vs. Miami Marlins (41-48; 48-35-6 O/U)

MLB: Monday, July 17, 2017 at 7:10pm EST

Line: Miami -141/Philadelphia +131

Total: 9

The Miami Marlins will host the Philadelphia Phillies as the division rivals open a three game series Monday night from Marlins Park. The Phillies will give the nod to 27-year old right-hander Jerad Eickhoff, and the Marlins will turn to 31-year old right-hander Tom Koehler. The Marlins currently lead the season series 3-2.

Eickhoff Silences Padres in First Win of Season

Jerad Eickhoff will take the mound for the 16th time of the season, eyeing his second straight win. Eickhoff was terrific in his previous start, tossing five shutout innings over the Padres, finally notching his first win of the season. The young right-hander has pitched well in two straight starts and now owns a 1-7 record with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 81.2 innings logged. He has pitched well against the Marlins, posting a 3.30 ERA with a 2-3 record in five career starts. Maikel Franco is finally producing consistently at the plate, driving in nine runs with three homers so far this month after recording only ten RBI’s last month. The 24-year old third baseman is currently hitting .223 with 13 home runs and 47 RBI’s. Franco is a solid 7 for 14 with four RBI’s against the Marlins this season.

The low-scoring Phillies are currently averaging 3.82 runs per game, ranking them down at 29th in the Majors, and are hitting .241 as a team. The Philadelphia pitching has been below average, recording a 4.68 team ERA, positioning them down at 23rd overall.

Koehler Looks to Avoid Fourth Straight Loss

Tom Koehler will make his 11th start of the season, hoping to avoid his fourth straight defeat. Koehler allowed three runs in five innings to the Cardinals five days ago, and took the loss. The veteran right-hander has been roughed up quite a few times this season, resulting in an ugly 8.00 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP accompanied with a 1-4 record in 45 innings pitched. He owns solid numbers against the Phillies, posting a 4-4 record with a 3.43 ERA in 16 career starts. Aaron Altherr is 2 for 6 against Koehler, while Freddy Galvis is 6 for 26, and Odubel Herrera is 5 for 19. Marcell Ozuna is one of the hottest hitters in the Majors, belting three homers with a whopping 16 RBI’s so far this month. The 26-year old left fielder is having an incredible season, sporting a .315 average with 23 home runs and 70 RBI’s. Ozuna is 6 for 22 with four RBI’s agains the Phillies this season.

The Marlins are now scoring an average of 4.66 runs per game, ranking them 17th in the Majors, and feature a strong .268 team batting average. The Miami pitching has been mediocre, posting a 4.65 team ERA, placing them 21st overall.

Trends:

The Philadelphia Phillies are:

  • 2-9 in Eickhoff’s last 11 starts.
  • 0-5 in Eickhoff’s last 5 starts against a team with a losing record.
  • 7-19 in their last 26 road games against a team with a losing record.

The Miami Marlins are:

  • 4-0 in their last 4 home games against the Phillies.
  • 7-0 in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.
  • 12-4 in their last 16 home games against a right-handed starter.

I am siding with the Marlins in this matchup. Eickhoff has yet to win on the road this season, going 0-5 with a weak 5.05 ERA, so I am confident the Marlins can plate some runs. Furthermore, while Koehler has struggled this season, he does feature a solid 3.43 career ERA against the Phillies. The Phillies simply have not been scoring enough runs to win ball games, averaging only 3.5 runs over their last 10 games, and they are a terrible 13-35 on the road this season.

 

Pick: Miami Marlins -141

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.