Mets vs. Cardinals, 07/17/17 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#905 St. Louis Cardinals
vs.
#906 New York Mets

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

St Louis Cardinals (44-46 SU, 40-50 RL, 49-39-3 O/U) vs New York Mets (41-47 SU, 38-50 RL, 51-27-10 O/U)

When: 7:10 PM EDT, Monday, July 17, 2017

Where: Citi Field in New York, New York

Lines: New York -118/ St Louis +108

Total: 9

Major League Baseball action on Monday evening and the St Louis Cardinals will square off with the New York Mets at Citi Field in New York in game one of their four-game series. The Under is 10-3 the last 13 games between these teams here in New York, but the Over is 5-2 the last seven games between these teams overall. Pitching Probables: Adam Wainwright will get the nod for the Cardinals in this one and the Mets will counter with Zach Wheeler.  

The Cardinals Need A Bit More Offense

The St Louis Cardinals are hanging in the race for the National League Central Title right now and a big reason for that has been their pitching, but if they hope to close the gap even more and eventually take over the lead in the division, then they will need a bit more from their offense. In game one of the series against the Pirates they scored two runs in the top of the first, but no more the rest of the game and eventually lost it in the bottom of the 9th. In game two they did win the game by a score of 4-09, but still, the offense didn’t look great and it was really the pitching of Lance Lynn that did the trick in that one. He allowed eight hits in 6.1 innings of work to get the win and is now 8-6 with a 3.40 ERA on the year. The offense has been a bit better of late for St Louis as they have now averaged 5.22 rpg in their last nine games, but if they can’t sustain that the rest of the way, then they will not be in the postseason. Adam Wainwright will toe the rubber for the Cardinals in this one and he has gone 10-5 with a 5.20 ERA in 18 starts on the year, including 3-0 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts and 3-4 with an 8.36 ERA in eight starts on the road. Wainwright has gone 23-7 with a 2.42 ERA in 51 games (39 starts during the month of July in his career and he is 4-4 with a 4.66 ERA in 12 games (10 starts) against the Mets overall, including 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA in five starts here at Citi Field.

The Cardinals have been a below average offensive team so far as they come in ranked 20th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.53 rpg, while also ranking 17th in hitting at .254 and 17th in homers with 108. On the mound they have been solid as they come in ranked 6th in the league in ERA at 3.94, while also ranking 9th in WHIP at 1.30.

The Mets Have Come Out The Break Swinging

The New York Mets have had all sorts of injuries this year and most have been to this pitching staff and that has hurt them this year. The offense has been solid for most of the year and if they can get healthy on the mound, then they can get back in the race for a postseason berth. The Mets are currently 12 games out of first in the National League East and 8.5 games out of a wildcard slot in the NL. They have plenty of work to do but they are off to a great start in the second half as they took the first of a three-game series from the Rockies, who are one of the teams that the Mets are chasing in the wildcard race. They really came out swinging after the break as they pounded the Rockies by a combined 23-5 in the two games. The Mets pounded out 27 hits and had five homers in the two games, including getting one from Jay Bruce on Saturday, while was his 24th of the year to lead the team. If their pitching ever comes around on a consistent basis then look out as they have the tools to make a solid run at that 2nd wildcard slot. Toeing the slab for the Mets in this one will be Zack Wheeler and he has gone 3-6 with a 4.86 ERA in 15 starts on the year, including 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA in his last three starts and 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA in eight starts here at home. Wheeler has gone 6-1 with a 2.13 ERA in 12 career starts in July and he is 8-14 with a 4.70 ERA in 28 career starts here at home, while against the Cards in his career he is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in one start.  

The Mets have been an average offensive team so far as they come in ranked 9th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.88 rpg, while also ranking 20th in hitting at .251 and 6th in homers with 134. On the mound, they have been poor as they come in ranked 27th in the league in ERA at 4.87, while also ranking 29th in WHIP at 1.46.

Trends

St Louis is:

  • The Over is 5-1 in Wainwright’s last six starts vs. National League East
  • The Over is 9-2 in Wainwright’s last 11 road starts

New York is:

  • The Over is 7-1-1 in Wheeler’s last nine home starts
  • The Over is 22-8-2 in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record

This could be a fun series between a couple of teams that are looking to crawl back into the playoff race. The Cardinals have been playing well of late and their offense has shown signs of life as they have averaged 5.22 rpg over their last nine games. They will be going up against Zack Wheeler, who has a 6.94 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in his last three starts and a 5.35 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP at home for the year so far. The Cards should be able to tag him for some runs in this one. On the other side is Adam Wainwright who has really struggled this year, especially on the road as he has an 8.36 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP away from home so far, plus he has a 6.02 ERA at night, compared to a 3.58 ERA in six day starts. Wainwright’s road starts have averaged 12.25 rpg, while his night starts have put up 10.42 rpg. Wheeler’s home starts have averaged 9.75 rpg, while his night starts have put up 10.27 rpg. I look for 13+ runs in this one.

Pick: Over 9

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David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.