Orioles vs. Rangers, 07/17/17 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#914 Baltimore Orioles
vs.
#913 Texas Rangers

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Texas Rangers (45-45; 41-47-2 O/U) vs. Baltimore Orioles (42-48; 47-40-3 O/U)

MLB: Monday, July 17, 2017 at 7:05pm EST

Line: Baltimore -121/Texas +111

Total: 11

The Texas Rangers will clash with the Baltimore Orioles in the first of a three game series starting Monday night from Camden Yards. The Rangers will give the nod to 30-year old right-hander Andrew Cashner, and 29-year old right-hander Chris Tillman will toe the rubber for the Orioles. This marks the first head-to-head series this season, and the Rangers won last year’s season series 4-3.

Tillman

Chris Tillman will make his 12th start of the year, searching for his first win since May. Tillman allowed two runs in five innings to the Rays in his latest start back on June 30th, and finished with the no decision. The 6-foot-5 right-hander has not been able to get in a groove this season, posting a poor 7.90 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP to go with a 1-5 record in 49 innings of work. He has had difficulties against Texas, going 3-2 with a poor 5.40 ERA in seven career starts. Elvis Andrus is 5 for 14 against Tillman, while Adrian Beltre is 7 for 15 with three RBI’s, and Rougned Odor is 2 for 5. Mark Trumbo is swinging the bat well, smashing three home runs along with seven RBI’s over his last eight games. The 31-year old DH is having a decent season, sporting a .258 average with 15 home runs and 47 RBI’s. Trumbo has tallied 18 homers with 57 RBI’s in 76 career games against Texas.

The Orioles are only averaging 4.48 runs per game, ranking them 22nd in the Majors, and own a .254 team batting average. The Baltimore pitching continues to struggle, posting a Major League worst 5.16 team ERA.

Cashner Shuts Down Red Sox in Three Hit Gem

Andrew Cashner will get the nod for the 15th time of the season, aiming for his second straight win. Cashner allowed two runs (zero earned) in seven innings to the Red Sox in his previous start, and recorded the win to bring his record to 4-7. The veteran right-hander has been very inconsistent after a strong start to the season, and now owns a 3.54 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 81.1 innings of work. He conceded two runs (one earned) in 7.1 innings in his lone career start against the Orioles which occurred in the 2013 season. Adrian Beltre recorded another three RBI’s on Friday night and has now driven in eight runs with three homers over his last six games. The 38-year old third baseman is looking energetic since his return from a long DL stint, hitting .284 with eight home runs and 30 RBI’s in 37 games. Beltre has accumulated 65 RBI’s in 106 career games against the Orioles.

The Rangers dangerous lineup is currently averaging 5.00 runs per game, good for sixth in the Majors, and posses a .239 team batting average. The Texas pitching owns 4.30 team ERA, placing them 15th in the Major Leagues.

Trends:

The Texas Rangers are:

  • 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
  • 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.
  • 8-3 in their last 11 games in Baltimore

The Baltimore Orioles are:

  • 1-4 in Tillman’s last 5 home starts.
  • 1-5 in their last 6 home games against a right-handed starter.
  • 0-4 in their last 4 games in the first game of a series.

I am taking the Rangers in this matchup. Tillman is having an awful season and I have zero confidence in him. He possesses a poor 5.40 ERA in seven starts against Texas, and the Rangers are hitting a combined .330 against him, plus Tillman has surrendered 11 homers over his last seven starts. Overall Cashner has been solid this season, and he just held the Red Sox to two runs (zero earned) in his previous start, so I am confident he can limit the damage.

Pick: Texas Rangers +111

Tillman is struggling on the mound for the Orioles and Cashner has also been very shaky. The Rangers lineup is hitting a combined .330 against Tillman, and the over is 5-1 in the Orioles last six games overall. Cashner owns a 4.66 ERA over his last five starts, so I am confident the Orioles can do some damage and the over is 4-0 in Cashner’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his previous appearance.

Pick: Over 11

4

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.