Mets vs. Phillies, 10/1/16 - Preview & Prediction

Game Snapshot

#960 Philadelphia Phillies
vs.
#959 New York Mets

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports
New York Mets (85-74 SU, 74-85 RL, 74-82-3 OU) vs Philadelphia Phillies (70-89 SU, 82-77 RL, 78-73-8 OU)

When: 1:05 PM ET, Saturday, October 1, 2016

Where: Citizens Bank Stadium in Philadelphia, PA

Lines: NY Mets -185/Philadelphia +165

Total: 9

The New York Mets are currently atop the National League Wildcard standings and they look to remain there when they tangle with the Philadelphia Phillies in game two of their three game series from Citizens Bank Stadium in Philadelphia, PA. The Mets are 41-17 the last 58 games in this series.  Pitching Probables: Bartolo Colon vs Phil Klein.

Could Bruce Be The Key To Their Postseason Hopes?

As of this writing the Mets haven’t clinched a playoff spot, but the have gone 22-8 their last 30 games in Philadelphia, so they should clinch in this series. How far can they go though? The Mets have strong pitching, but some of it is still on the DL. The offense may have to carry them in the postseason and that offense has been good of late as they have averaged 7.40 rpg in their last 10 games. Yoenis Cespedes has led the offense this year with 31 homers and 85 RBIs, but they are finally getting good play from Jay Bruce, who has three homes and five RBIs over his last five games. If he continues that then this team has a good shot at surprising in the postseason, but they will also need what has been very averaging pitching of late to step up as well.    

Looking to take the Mets one step closer to a playoff berth will be Bartolo Colon, who has gone 14-8 with a 3.42 ERA in 33 games (32 starts) this year, including 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts and 8-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 games (16 starts) on the road. Colon is 33-21 with a 3.89 ERA in his last 63 games (62 starts) on the road and 81-47 with a 3.88 ERA in his career in day games, while vs the Phillies he is 10-5 with a 3.42 EA in 18 starts, including 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA in eight starts here at the Bank. The Mets enter this game ranked 26th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.14 rpg, while also ranking 26th in hitting at .245 and 5th in homers with 216. The Mets have hit .248 on the road overall, including .245 vs righties. The Mets score 4.10 rpg and allow 3.94 rpg on the road for the year. On the mound New York has been solid as they come in ranked 3rd in the league in ERA at 3.59, while also ranking 9th in WHIP at 1.27. On the road Met starters have an ERA of 4.01, while their pen has an ERA of 3.43.

The Phillies Are Not Finishing Strong

The Philadelphia Phillies have been out of the postseason race for a while, but still teams do not like to head into the offseason with negative momentum. Well, the Phillies are as they have lost their last four in a row and six of their last seven. The real culprit for that slump has been their pitching, which has allowed a whopping 9.71 rpg over that stretch of games. Yikes. The good news is that the offense has come to life as they have averaged 5.20 rpg in their last 10 games. The Phils would love to play well in this series, but they have not had good luck ve the mets the last couple of years and they just don’t have the pitching to turn it around. Toeing the rubber in this game will be Phil Klein, who is 0-0 with a 12.15 ERA in three games (one start) this year for the Phils. He started the year with Texas and was 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA in eight games out of the pen for them. In his career he now has three starts and is 1-0 with an 8.03 ERA in those starts.   

On offense the Phillies check in at 30th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.78 rpg, while also ranking 29th in hitting at .240 and 24th in homers with 159. The Phillies hit .227 at home overall, including .222 vs righties. Philadelphia averages 3.46 rpg and allows 4.50 rpg at home. On the mound the pitching has been very poor as they come in ranked 26th in the league in ERA at 4.69 while also ranking and 17th in WHIP at 1.35. At home Philadelphia starters have a 3.72 ERA, while their pen has an ERA of 4.35.

Trends

New York is:

  • 14-40 in their last 54 games with no rest
  • 1-4 their last 5 vs a team with a winning record

Philadelphia is:

  • 8-2 in their last 10 vs the Western Conference
  • 6-1 in their last 7 vs the Central

The Over is the play here. The Mets offense has been much better down the stretch and the Phillies pitching has been horrible, while on the other side we have a Philadelphia offense that has been better as well and will take aim at Bartolo Colon, who has struggled of late. This has been a high scoring series as the Over is 68-30-5 the last 103 meetings and that should continue here.

Pick: Over 9

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David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.