Orioles vs. Yankees, 10/1/16 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#968 New York Yankees
vs.
#967 Baltimore Orioles

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Baltimore Orioles (87-72) vs. New York Yankees (83-76)

MLB: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 4:05pm EST

Line: Baltimore -110/N.Y. Yankees +100

Total: 8.5


The Baltimore Orioles will take on the New York Yankees in another must win game for the O’s in the second game of a three game series Saturday from Yankee Stadium. The Orioles will need a big start from 29-year old left hander Wade Miley, and the Yankees give the nod to 22-year old right hander Luis Severino.

Miley Dazzles vs Diamondbacks

Wade Miley will make his 30th start and 11th as a member of the Orioles, looking for his second straight victory. Miley was brilliant in his previous start, tossing 8.2 innings of one run ball to go along with 11 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks, notching his ninth win of the season. Overall the veteran left hander has not been effective for the Orioles since coming over in a trade and now owns a weak 5.40 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP to go along with a 9-13 record in 160 innings of work. He made his one and only start of the season against the Yankees earlier this month and conceded four runs in five innings, and now sits  at 0-3 with a 5.77 ERA in 34.1 career innings pitched against New York. Brett Gardner is 5 for 14 with a homer against Miley, Starlin Castro is 3 for 18, and Chase Headley is 8 for 29.

Mark Trumbo has been hitting clutch home runs for the Orioles down the stretch, and added another with a late game solo jack in Toronto a few days ago to bring the game within one run in a contest the Orioles ended up winning. The 30-year old slugger has belted three homers with four RBI’s in his last five games, and is now hitting .252 with a Major League leading 46 home runs and 106 RBI’s on the season. The Orioles power hitting lineup is averaging 4.58 runs per game, ranking them 12th overall, and have a .256 team batting average. The Baltimore pitching has been subpar, posting a 4.23 team ERA, placing them 19th overall.

Severino Gets Nod in Place of Tanaka

Masahiro Tanaka was originally slated to make this start but is dealing with a minor forearm injury and the Yankees have decided to go with Luis Severino in his place. Severino has mainly pitched in a relief role over the last month, and has pitched well, allowing only two runs in 16 innings pitched in September. The young right hander has struggled in his starting role, posting an 8.59 ERA in 44 innings pitched. Severino has been solid against Baltimore this season, conceding four runs (three earned) in nine innings of work. Watch for Mark Trumbo who is 2 for 4 with two homers against Severino.

Gary Sanchez continues to dazzle, now with six homers and 17 RBI’s over his last 13 games. The 23-year old rookie catcher has put up incredible numbers since joining the Yankees in early August, belting 20 home runs with 42 homers and a .303 batting average in just 51 games. Yankees fans have to be excited to see the numbers Sanchez will put up next season. The Yankees are now scoring an average of 4.21 runs per game, placing them 22nd overall, and own a .252 team batting average. The New York pitching has been average, sporting a 4.14 team ERA, ranking them in the middle at 15th overall.

Trends:

The Baltimore Orioles are:

  • under is 5-0 in their last five road games.
  • under is 4-1 in Miley’s last five starts.

The New York Yankees are:

  • under is 4-1 in their last five home games,
  • under is 4-0 in their last four games against the Orioles.
  • under is 7-2 in their last nine home games against Baltimore.

I am going with the under in this contest. Miley tossed 8.2 innings of one run ball in his previous start, so I am confident he can silence the Yankees in what is possibly the biggest start of his career. Also Severino has pitched well against Baltimore this season, allowing only three earned runs over nine innings, and the Orioles have scored four or fewer runs in eight out of their last ten games, so I think the under is the best play in this one.

Prediction: Under 8.5

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.