Pirates vs. Cardinals, 10/1/16 - Preview & Prediction

Game Snapshot

#957 Pittsburgh Pirates
vs.
#958 St. Louis Cardinals

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates (78-80 SU, 73-86 RL, 88-67-4 OU) vs St Louis Cardinals (83-76 SU, 73-86 RL, 82-71-6 OU)

When: 1:05 PM ET, Saturday, October 1, 2016

Where: Busch Stadium in St Louis, Missouri

Lines: Pittsburgh +145/St. Louis -155

Total: 8.5

Today’s baseball action takes us to St. Louis, Missouri where the Pittsburgh Pirates will battle it out with the St Louis Cardinals, who are looking to stay in the race for a wIldcard berth. The Cards are currently a game behind the Giants for the 2nd wildcard slot in the National League. Pittsburgh is 4-1 their last five games here in St Louis. Pitching Probables: Chad Kuhl vs Jaime Garcia.

Pirates Hope To Play Spoller In This Series

The Pittsburgh Pirates have won four of their last five game here in St Louis and should they keep winning here then they have a good shot at keeping the Cards out of the playoffs. The Pirates were in the race for a while, but they just ran out of gas and their pitching just couldn’t keep up. They have allowed 43 runs in their last six full games, but that will have to change if they hope to play spoiler in this series. Taking the hill for the Pirates will be rookie Chad Kuhl, who has gone 5-4 with a 4.25 ERA in 13 starts this year, including 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA in seven starts on the road and 2-1 with a 4.80 ERA in his last three starts overall. He has one start vs the Cards and lost that game 12-6, allowing three ERs and four hits and three walks in just 2.0 innings of work.  

The Pittsburgh offense comes in ranked 13th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.54 rpg, while also ranking 11th in hitting at .258 and 26th in homers with 151. The Pirates hit .241 overall on the road, including .260 vs lefties. Pittsburgh scores 4.65 rpg and allows 4.49 rpg on the road. On the mound the Pirates check in at 16th in the league in ERA at 4.17, while also ranking 25th in WHIP at 1.39. On the road Pirate starters come in with an ERA of 5.33, while their pen has an ERA of 2.58.

St Louis Is Trying To Sneak Into The Playoffs

The St Louis Cardinals are sitting just a game out of a wildcard slot as of this writing and playing at home may not be the best thing for this team, but if they hope to make the playoffs then they will have to get over the woes at home. The Cards have gone just 35-43 at home for the year after having the best home record in the league last year. They have gone 48-33 on the road, which is probably where they wish this series was, especially knowing that they have lost four of the last five at home to Pittsburgh. The Cardinals will rely on Jaime Garcia to keep their playoff hopes alive tonight and he has gone 10-13 with a 4.67 ERA in 32 games (30 starts) this year, including 0-2 with a 12.79 ERA in his last three starts and 8-9 with a 4.44 ERA in 18 starts here at home. Garcia is 34-24 with a 3.05 ERA in 82 games (77 starts) here at Busch Stadium in his career and 17-12 with a 3.19 ERA in 44 games (42 starts) in daytime, while vs the Pirates he is 2-1 with a 1.62 ERA in five starts.

The Cardinals enter this game ranked 5th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.77 rpg, while also ranking 19th in hitting at .254 and 2nd in homers with 220. St Louis has hit .247 overall at home, including .246 vs righties. The Cardinals have averaged 4.28 rpg and have allowed 4.53 rpg at home this year. On the mound the Cards have been solid as they come in ranked 14th in the league in ERA at 4.10, while also ranking 13th in WHIP at 1.32. At home Cardinal starters come in with an ERA of 4.16, while their pen has an ERA of 4.12.

Trends

Pittsburgh is:

  • 4-1 in their last five  road games vs. a team with a losing home record
  • 6-1 in Kuhls last seven road starts

St Louis is:

  • 2-7 in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record

Going with the Pirates here as Chad Kuhl has been very solid for them this year, while Jaime Garcia has struggled of late and doesn’t have great numbers at home this year. In his lone start vs the Pirates this year he allowed four ERs on four hits, including two homers, plus he allowed three walks in just five innings of work. The Cards need this game in the worst way, but they are not a good home team and I feel that Pittsburgh will get the better of them here.   

Prediction: Pittsburgh +145

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David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.