Rays vs. Rangers, 10/1/16 - Preview & Prediction

Game Snapshot

#974 Texas Rangers
#973 Tampa Bay Rays

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers

MLB Baseball:  Saturday, October 1st, 8:05 pm EST

Line: Tampa Bay -110/Texas +100

Total: 9

Probables:  Jake Odorizzi (9-6, 3.77) vs. Colby Lewis (6-4, 3.93 ERA)

The Rays play their second to last game of the season against the Braves in Atlanta on Saturday.  It’s been a long season for the Rays, and I’m sure they are looking forward to getting it over with.  One bright spot has been the pitching of Jake Odorizzi, who has gone 9-6 with a very respectable ERA of 3.77.  The Rangers are headed to the playoffs and have a very good chance of securing the best overall record in the AL.  They are currently two games ahead of the Red Sox and three ahead of the Indians.

Jake Odorizzi gets the call for the Rays

Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi is looking for his 10th win of the year on Saturday.  It’s pretty amazing that in 32 starts, he has only six losses for a last place team.  In a year where Chris Archer has a chance to lose 20 games, Odorizzi should take pride in losing so few.  He hasn’t won in four starts, but he’s still 4-1 over his last 10 starts. He last faced Texas back on August 20th, and got the win, allowing one earned run over six innings.  It was in the middle of a four game winning streak for Odorizzi that was his best stretch of the year. But in his last start, he went just three innings and threw 84 pitches, while allowing two runs in a 3-2 Boston loss.

Colby Lewis goes against Odorizzi

Colby Lewis gets the call on Saturday for the Rangers, and what could be a best record clinching game or mean nothing at all.  Before you bet this game, you may want to check and see if the game means anything before wagering on the Rangers.  In all likelihood, Lewis will get the start regardless, because he will not be getting one of the first two starts in the playoff series.  It’s yet to be seen whether he will be getting any starts in the post season and if he does, it will likely be in a second round seven game series. Lewis is coming off a terrible start against Oakland, giving up seven runs in just 1/1 innings. Last year, he faced Tampa Bay just once and allowed one run in six innings in a 12-4 Rangers’ win.

Baseball Trends:

The Tampa Bay Rays are:

  • 13-38 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

The Texas Rangers are:

  • 4-1 in Lewis’ last 5 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
  • 6-2 in Lewis’ last 8 starts vs. American League East.

While I would suggest looking to see if this game means anything to the Rangers, I like them to win the game either way.  They are heading to the playoffs and will be on a high, while the Rays are just trying to get the season over with.  That type of attitude doesn’t matter at the end of the season, and you will sometimes see teams just getting up there and hacking if the games mean nothing to them.  Let’s take the Rangers at home.

Prediction: Texas -110

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Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.