Twins vs. White Sox, 10/1/16 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#971 Minnesota Twins
vs.
#972 Chicago White Sox

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Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox

MLB Baseball:  Saturday, October 1st, 8:10 pm EST

Line:  Chicago White Sox -118/Minnesota +108

Total: 9

Probables:  Hector Santiago (12-10, 4.87 ERA) vs. James Shields  (6-18, 5.82 ERA)

The Twins take on the White Sox in their second to last games of the season. The Twins have already lost 102 games and could lose as many as 105 games which is one of the biggest numbers of the last 20 years.  The White Sox have also been a disappointment but for a different reason.  They began the season with modest expectations, but then took the AL Central by storm and led it for most of the first two months of the season before falling back to earth.  They have already guaranteed themselves of a losing record.

Hector Santiago goes for the Twins

Minnesota left-hander Hector Santiago gets the call for the Twins in their penultimate game of the year.  He’s had an interesting year as he started the season with the Angels and got off to a 12-10 start.  He then joined the Twins and lost his first four starts and didn’t pick up a win till his seventh start.  He’s 2-6 overall with the Twins, but still has 12 wins while pitching for two terrible teams, so it hasn’t been all bad. However, in his last two starts against Seattle and Detroit, he’s allowed a combined 10 runs in 11 innings. In his last start against the White Sox, he gave up three runs in six innings, in a 11-3 win on Sept. 3.

James Shields looks to avoid 19th loss

James Shields has had the year from hell.  It was bad enough for the first half of the season with the Padres, and it only got worse once he was traded to the White Sox where he was shelled in seven of his first eight starts.  He picked up his first win in 10 starts in his latest, but it’s too little too late.  Just two years ago he was one of the best pitchers in the major leagues and was pitching in the World Series.  He has gone downhill fast. In his last start, he pitched well against Tampa Bay, allowing just one run in six innings against the Rays (7-1 White Sox win). In his last start against the Twins, he gave up runs runs in 2.1 innings, allowing three home runs in a 11-3 Minnesota win. In a previous start against the Twins on June 29, Shields gave up just one run in 6.2 innings in 9-6 White Sox win.

Baseball Trends:

The Minnesota Twins are:

  • 7-19 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

The Chicago White Sox are:

  • 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
  • 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.

Here we have a team that has lost over a 100 games versus a pitcher who is staring his 19th loss right in the face.  It’s a game only a mother could love.  James Shields pitched well in his latest and I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for having one terrible year.  He’s been great for a long time, and he hope he bounces back.  I think he closes this dreadful year with a win.

Prediction: Chicago White Sox -118

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Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.