Indians vs. Cubs, 10/28/16 – Prediction & Preview

Game Snapshot

Cleveland Indians
vs.
Chicago Cubs

Friday, October 28, 2016 at 8:05pm

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Cleveland Indians (1-1) vs. Chicago Cubs (1-1)

MLB World Series Game 3: Friday, October 28, 2016 at 8:00pm EST

Line: Chicago -175/Cleveland +161

Total: 7

The Chicago Cubs will look to take the series lead as they host the Cleveland Indians in game three of the World Series Friday night from the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. The Indians will give the ball to 32-year old right hander Josh Tomlin, and the Cubs will send 26-year old right hander Kyle Hendricks to the mound. The Indians shutout the Cubs 6-0 in game one, and the Cubs took game two by a 5-1 score behind a great outing from Jake Arrieta, and a big night at the plate from Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber.

Tomlin Aims for Third Straight Postseason Win

Josh Tomlin will make his third start of the Postseason, and first career start against the Cubs, aiming for his third straight win. Tomlin has pitched well in each of his Postseasons starts, allowing two runs over five innings in the ALDS against the Red Sox, followed by a stellar 5.2 inning performance where he conceded just one run to the Blue Jays.  Overall, Tomlin had a solid season with the exception of a rough month of August where he posted an 11.48 ERA in six starts. He finished the year with a 13-9 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 174 innings of work. 

The Indians hitters had no answer for Jake Arrieta and the Cubs bullpen in game two, recording only three hits, and the one run scored was the lowest run total from the Indians during the Postseason. The Indians did commit two errors which is very uncharacteristic of them, and the Cubs are the last team you want to give extra outs to work with. Cleveland had only committed one error the entire Postseason coming into game two. The Indians avoided the use of Andrew Miller in the game two loss, and manager Terry Francona can use Miller for extended innings if needed, and he also has hard throwing right hander Danny Salazar at his disposal, who is back from injury. The Indians are hitting .210 as a team through ten Postseason games, and feature a stifling 1.82 team ERA.

Hendricks Hard to Beat at Wrigley Field

Kyle Hendricks will make his third start of the Postseason, and first career start against the Indians, looking to continue where he left off in his latest start. Hendricks was brilliant in his latest start in game five of the NLCS, tossing 7.1 shutout innings to the Dodgers, and has now conceded only three runs on nine hits in 16.1 innings pitched in the Postseason. The young right hander had an amazing season, posting an 18-6 record with a Major League best 2.13 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP in 190 innings pitched, and was hard to beat at Wrigley Field, where he posted a 9-2 record.

Ben Zobrist is having quite the World Series so far, notching a hit in 5 of his 8 at bats with an RBI, after going 6 for 36 in the Postseason heading into the World Series. The Cubs spread out their hitting throughout the lineup in the game two win with seven different batters recording at least one hit. Kyle Schwarber has been outstanding in the World Series, considering he only saw four at bats all season back in April after injuring his left knee. The 23-year old has gone a combined 3 for 7 with two RBI’s and two walks in the first two games of the World Series. The Cubs are sporting a .223 team batting average through 12 Postseason games, and own a 3.96 team ERA.

Trends:

The Cleveland Indians are:

  • under is 8-0 in their last 8 Postseason games.
  • under is 4-0 in their last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
  • under is 7-0-1 in Tomlin’s last 8 starts overall.

The Chicago Cubs are:

  • under is 4-0-1 in Hendricks last 4 home starts.
  • under is 5-1 in the Cubs last 6 games against the Indians.
  • under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning record.

I am going with the under in this contest. I believe this will be a low scoring game with Hendricks and Tomlin on the hill. Hendricks has been outstanding in the Postseason, tossing 7.1 scoreless innings in his latest start, and has allowed just three runs in 16.1 innings in his three starts, and looked better with each start. Hendricks was phenomenal at Wrigley Field this season, posting a dazzling 1.32 ERA with a .201 opponent batting average, so I think it will be very tough for the Indians to get much offense going. Also, I liked what I saw from Tomlin in his two Postseason starts, conceding only three runs in 10.3 innings, and both bullpens have been tremendous, especially the Indians bullpen, so I think we will see another low scoring ball game.

Pick: Under 7

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Last Updated: October 27, 2016

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.