Indians vs. Cubs, 10/30/16 – Preview & Prediction

Game Snapshot

Cleveland Indians
vs.
Chicago Cubs

Sunday, October 30, 2016 at 8:05pm

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Cleveland Indians (3-1) vs. Chicago Cubs (1-3)

MLB World Series Game Five: Sunday, October 30, 2016 at 8:00pm EST

Line: Chicago Cubs -210/Cleveland +192

Total: N/A

The Cleveland Indians will look to finish off the Chicago Cubs and notch their third World Series Title in game five of the World Series Sunday night from Wrigley Field. The Indians will send 25-year old right hander Trevor Bauer to the mound, and the Cubs will turn to 32-year old left hander Jon Lester. The Indians dominated the Cubs in a 7-1 win Saturday night behind another gem from Corey Kluber, and a three RBI performance from Jason Kipnis.

Bauer Has Chance to Clinch World Series Title

Trevor Bauer will make his third official start of the Postseason, and second start of the World Series, hoping it goes better than his game two start. Bauer was not sharp in game two, conceding two runs on six hits, and lasted just 3.2 innings, and took the loss. The young right hander has now allowed five runs on 12 hits in nine innings pitched in the Postseason. Bauer did not finish the regular season strong, posting a weak 6.75 ERA in September and finished the year with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. 

Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana both had huge nights in the game five win, going a combined 6 for 9 with five RBI’s after recording zero RBI’s in the first four games. The Indians continue to receive contributions from a seemingly different player every night. Lindor continues to lead the way in hits, going 7 for 15 with and notched his first RBI of the series in game five. Terry Francona now owns an 11-1 record in the World Series, and he deserves a lot of credit pulling all the right strings the entire Postseason. The Indians are hitting .216 as a team through 12 Postseason games, and feature a stifling 1.68 team ERA.

Cubs Season Placed on Lester’s Shoulders

Jon Lester will make his fifth start of the Postseason, and second start of the World Series, looking to rebound from a shaky outing in game one. Lester had control issues early and even hit a batter, conceding three runs in 5.2 innings and took the loss. Overall, the veteran left hander has been outstanding in the Postseason, conceding only five runs over 26.2 innings, giving him a stifling 1.69 ERA. Jon Lester ranks among one of the best Postseason pitchers over the last few decades, posting a 2.60 career Postseason ERA, ranking him second behind only Curt Schilling with pitchers who have made at least 15 career Postseason starts.

The Cubs have not been efficient with runners in scoring position in this series, notching a hit in only four of 37 at bats with only four RBI’s, giving them a weak .133 batting average. Chicago was productive with runners in scoring position in the NLCS, hitting .255 with 23 RBI’s. To win Postseason games, usually your best players have to come through and that has not been the case with the duo of Bryant and Rizzo, who have had a disappointing World Series, combining for only two RBI’s. The Cubs are sporting a .217 team batting average through 14 Postseason games, and have a 3.12 team ERA.

Trends:

The Cleveland Indians are:

  • 2-6 in their last eight games against a left handed starter.
  • under is 6-0 in the Indians last six games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
  • under is 4-0 in the Indians last four games against a left handed starter.

The Chicago Cubs are:

  • 9-0 in Lester’s last 9 home starts against a team with a winning record.
  • under is 4-1 in the Cubs last five Postseason games.
  • under is 5-0 in Lester’s last five starts following a team loss in their previous game.

I am going with the Cubs and the under in this contest. Bauer has not been very sharp in his Postseason starts, allowing five runs on 12 hits in nine innings, and was fortunate to allow only two runs in his 3.2 innings against the Cubs in game one. Also, Lester has been outstanding in the Postseason, posting a stifling 1.69 ERA, and is one of the best Postseason pitchers of all time, and I believe the Cubs will find a way to force a game six. In addition, I really like the under again in this contest, the under has hit in three of the four games in the World Series, and with Lester on the mound, and with the Indians bullpen posting a 1.72 Postseason ERA, I feel very confident the under will hit in this contest.

Pick: Chicago Cubs -210 and Under

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Last Updated: October 30, 2016

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.