Padres vs. Dodgers, 8-12-2017 - Pick and Prediction

Game Snapshot

#913 San Diego Padres
vs.
#914 Los Angeles Dodgers

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

San Diego Padres (50-64 SU, 61-53 RL, 60-48-6 O/U) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (80-33 SU, 63-50 RL, 52-57-4 O/U)

When: 9:10 PM EDT, Saturday, August 12, 2017

Where: Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California

Lines: Los Angeles -235, San Diego +216

Total: 8

Saturday MLB action and a pair of National League West foes will square off as the San Diego Padres grapple with the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California in game two of their three-game series. Pitching Probables: Toeing the slab for the Padres will be Jhoulys Chacin (11-8, 4.15 ERA) and he will be opposed by Hyun-Jin Ryu (4-6, 3.53 ERA).

Like Night And Day For Jhoulys Chacin

The San Diego Padres have had a real rough year so far and while their offense has been the worst in the league, their pitching hasn’t been a whole lot better for them. That makes for a bad combination. During the offseason they brought in tonight’s starter, Jhoulys Chacin, in hopes of helping the staff and he has really pitched well at home for the Padres, but out on the road it has been a completely different story. Chacin has gone 11-8 with a 4.15 ERA in 23 starts on the year overall, including 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA in his last three starts. Out on the road he has gone just 4-6 with a 7.36 ERA in 11 starts, but at home he has looked like a Cy Young award-winning pitcher as he has gone 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA in 12 starts at Petco. Like night and day and it is not good news for them as he is now on the road against a los Angeles team that is the best in the league at home at 47-13. Chacin is 13-10 with a 3.32 ERA in 30 games (25 starts) during the month of August and he is 10-8 with a 4.20 ERA in 23 games (22 starts) against the Dodgers, including 5-4 with a 4.30 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) here at Dodger Stadium. The Padres have gone just 21-37 on the road, with a road ERA of 5.28, which is 26th in the league.

The Padres have not been a good offensive team so far as they come in ranked 30th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.82 rpg, while also ranking 30th in hitting at .235 and 16th in homers with 141. On the mound they have been poor so far as they come in ranked 26th in the league in ERA at 4.74, while also ranking 18th in WHIP at 1.38.

Dodgers Are Chasing History

The Los Angeles Dodgers did not start off as one of the best teams ever as they were just 10-12 at one point this year, but since then they have gone 70-21 and have the best record in the league, by a pretty wide margin. The Dodgers are on pace for 114.7 wins on the year and the MLB record is 116 wins, which was set by  the 1906 Chicago Cubs and the 2001 Seattle Mariners. It is unlikely that they will get to 116 wins as they could start resting some players down the stretch, but still it has been a heck of a ride for them. 3rd in wins in the History of the League was the 1998 Yankees, who had 114 and 4th was the 1954 Cleveland Indians, who had 111. If the Dodgers hit 110 win then they will be in the top five all-time. No matter what, should be looking a team that will be in the World Series with a chance of breaking their 28 year title drought. The last time they won it was back in 1988. The Dodgers will trot out Hyun-Jin Ryu in this one and he has gone 4-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 17 games (16 starts) on the year, including 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts and 2-2 with a 3.51 ERA in nine games (eight starts) here at home. Ryu has gone 7-3 with a 2.13 ERA in 11 career starts in August and he is 13-10 with a 3.24 ERA in 36 games (35 starts) here at Dodger Stadium, while against the Padres he has gone 4-1 with a 2.19 ERA in six starts.

The Dodgers have been a very solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 5th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.09 rpg, while also ranking 11th in hitting at .258 and 4th in homers with 166. On the mound they have been the best in the league so far as they come in with an ERA of 3.08, while also ranking 1st in WHIP at 1.11.

Trends

San Diego is:

  • 8-18 in their last 26 vs. the National League West
  • 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

Los Angeles is:

  • 44-11 in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing record
  • 29-8 in Ryu’s last 37 starts vs. a team with a losing record

The San Diego Padres are a bad team right now, especially on the road and they have Jhoulys Chacin on the mound for this one, which means it isn’t likely to get a whole lot better for them. Chacin is just 4-6 with a 7.36 ERA out on the road this year and just lost 11-3 at Cincinnati, so what will the league’s best team do against him? The Dodgers have gone 47-13 here at home and have Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound and he has pitched very well of late as he has gone 2-0 with a 2.07 ERA in his last six starts. He has gone 2-2 at home, but with a decent 3.51 ERA and he has a 2.17 ERA in his last three home starts. The Dodgers should win this one rather easily.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5

Will the Padres be able to score in this game? Their offense has been a bit better on the road than at home and their did score six runs off of Ryu in his lone start against them here at Dodger Stadium last year. Still this is not a good offensive team and Ryu has a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts overall and while he struggled against the Padres here last year, he did have a 0.84 ERA in his first five career starts against them. The Padres hit just .2.18 on the road against lefties, so I don’t expect much offense from them in this one. The Dodger won’t go wild in this game as teams tend to take the night off offensively if they have a dominant pitching matchup in the game and they have that as Chacin has been horrible on the road. The Dodgers know that they don’t have to score a ton to win this game and that will keep the scoring down. Look for a 4-1 Dodgers win in this one.

Pick: Under 8

Confidence: 4

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David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.