Cubs vs. Diamondbacks, 8-13-2017 - Pick and Prediction

Game Snapshot

#962 Arizona Diamondbacks
vs.
#961 Chicago Cubs

Sunday, August 8 2017, at 4:10pm EDT

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Chicago Cubs (60-54; 53-56-5 O/U) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (64-51; 52-57-6 O/U)

MLB: Sunday, August 13, 2017 at 4:10pm EST

Line: Chicago -117/Arizona +107

Total: 9.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks will collide with the Chicago Cubs in the series finale Sunday afternoon from Chase Field in Phoenix. The Cubs will give the start to 31-year old right-hander Jake Arrieta, and the Diamondbacks will turn to 27-year old right-hander Zack Godley. The season series is currently tied two games apiece.

Arrieta Eyes Fifth Consecutive Road Win

Jake Arrieta will get the nod for the 24th time of the season, aiming for his second straight win. Arrieta pitched well in his latest outing, allowing three runs (two earned) in 6.1 innings to the Giants, and earned the win to bring his record to 11-8. The veteran right-hander is having a strong second half and now features a 3.83 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 134 innings of work. He took on the Diamondbacks earlier this month and limited them to only two runs (one earned) in seven innings, and now possesses a terrific 2.95 ERA and a 2-3 record in six career starts against Arizona. Paul Goldschmidt is 4 for 15 with two RBI’s against Arrieta, while Jake Lamb is 4 for 12, and David Peralta is 5 for 15 with four RBI’s. Javier Baez is swinging a hot bat, driving in nine runs along with three homers over his last nine games. The 24-year old second baseman is having a solid season, hitting .264 with 16 home runs and 49 RBI’s. Baez has notched a hit in 4 of 12 at bats with four RBI’s against the Diamondbacks this season.

The Cubs are currently averaging 4.72 runs per game, ranking them 13th in the Major Leagues, and own a .247 team batting average. The Chicago pitching has been solid, boasting a 3.97 team ERA, good for seventh in the Majors.

Godley Aims for Second Win Over Cubs this Season

Zack Godley will take the mound for the 17th time of the season, aiming for win number six. Godley was solid once again in his previous performance, allowing three runs in 6.2 innings to the Dodgers, and finished with the no decision. The young right-hander continues to shine on the mound, currently sporting a 2.94 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP accompanied with a 5-4 record in 101 innings pitched. He faced the Cubs earlier this month and was terrific, tossing six scoreless innings and recorded the win. Godley allowed six runs in 3.2 innings in his only other start against the Cubs which occurred back in 2015. Paul Goldschmidt had a huge series against the Cubs earlier this month, and he has now belted four homers along with eight RBI’s in four games against Chicago this season. The 29-year old first baseman is having a tremendous season, sporting a .317 average with 27 home runs and 91 RBI’s. Goldschmidt continues to drive in runs at a rapid pace, collecting 13 RBI’s this month.

The Diamondbacks deep lineup is scoring an average of 4.97 runs per game, good for sixth overall, and feature a .255 team batting average. The Arizona pitching has been outstanding, featuring a 3.59 team ERA, ranking them second in the Major Leagues.

Trends:

The Chicago Cubs are:

  • 0-5 in Arrieta’s last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record.
  • 1-6 in Arrieta’s last 7 starts on five days of rest.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are:

  • 4-0 in Godley’s last 4 starts.
  • 5-0 in Godley’s last 5 home starts against a team with a winning record.
  • 41-21 in their last 62 home games.

I am taking the Diamodbacks in this matchup. Godley just tossed six scoreless innings of three hit ball against the Cubs in a 3-1 win earlier this month, and he has only lost one home game all season, so I am confident siding with him. Furthermore, the Cubs have not been a strong road team this year, and Arrieta does own an ERA over four on the road, so I expect Arizona to do enough offensively to notch the home win.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +107

Arrieta has turned his season around and is really pitching well and Godley also continues to silence his opponents. Arrieta features a terrific 2.95 career ERA against the Diamondbacks and the under is 19-8-1 in their last 28 road games. Godley already silenced the Cubs this season and he features a .172 opponent batting average at Chase Field this season, plus the under is 6-1 in Godley’s last seven starts overall.

Pick: Under 9.5

5

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.