Mets vs. Phillies, 8-13-2017 - Pick and Prediction

Game Snapshot

#956 Philadelphia Phillies
vs.
#955 New York Mets

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

New York Mets (54-60 SU, 48-65 RL, 65-37-11 O/U) vs Philadelphia Phillies (42-71 SU, 59-54 RL, 50-54-9 O/U)

When: 1:35 PM EDT, Sunday, August 13, 2017

Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

Lines: Philadelphia -115/ New York +105

Total: 10

A pair of National League East foes will square off this afternoon in the City Of Brotherly Love as the New York Mets tangle with the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Stadium in Philadelphia, PA. The Mets are 38-14 in their last 52 games here in Philadelphia. Pitching Probables: The Mets will send to the mound Chris Flexen (1-1, 8.49 ERA) and he will be opposed by Zach Eflin (1-3, 5.67 ERA).

Offense Wakes Up In Philadelphia

The Philadelphia Phillies had been playing very well at home of late and have been getting some really good pitching here at the Bank lately, but that didn’t phase the Mets as they took the first two games of this series and scored 17 runs in the process, and that was without Jay Bruce, who has been traded to the Cleveland Indians. The Mets had scored a total of 14 runs in their previous six games. Scoring on the road has not really been an issue for the Mets this year as they have put up 5.33 rpg on the road, compared to just 4.17 rpg at home. The Mets are still just 26-29 on the road as their pitching has let them down away from home to the tune of a 5.24 road ERA, compared to a 4.63 ERA at home. The Mets are just trying to play out the string and come back strong with a much healthier team next year. One starter that they are looking at closely the rest of the season will be Chris Flexen, who will get the nod in this one  and he has gone 1-1 with an 8.49 ERA in three starts in this his first year in the league, including 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in two starts on the road. He will need to improve if he wants to be on the roster next year. Flexen was 6-1 with a 1.76 ERA in 10 starts combined at Binghamton (AA) and St Lucie (A+) this year.

The Mets have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 11th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.73 rpg, while also ranking 20th in hitting at .250 and 3rd in homers with 171. On the mound, they have been poor as they come in ranked 28th in the league in ERA at 4.92 while also ranking 30th in WHIP at 1.47.

Phillies Are Back To Struggling On the Mound

The Philadelphia Phillies played well coming out of the All-Star Break as they won 10 of their first 16 games, post-break and they allowed just 4.31 rpg in those games, but since then they have gone just 3-7 and have allowed 5.30 rpg over that stretch. That is not good for them as the offense has really sputtered of late as they have averaged just 3.10 rpg in their last 10 games, after putting up a solid 5.50 rpg in their previous 16 games. The one starter that has been immune to the woes of the Philadelphia staff has been Aaron Nola, who will get the start on Saturday. He is 5-2 with a 1.76 ERA in his last nine starts. The Phillies are also just playing out the string the rest of the way as they want to look at many younger players in hopes of being a more competitive team next year. The Phillies will send out Zach Eflin in this game and he has gone 1-3 with a 5.67 ERA in nine starts on the year, including 1-2 with an 8.50 ERA in his last three starts and 0-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four starts here at home. Eflin is 4-8 with a 5.60 ERA in 20 career starts overall, including 1-4 with a 5.62 ERA in eight starts here at the Bank, plus 1-5 with a 6.23 ERA in 10 day starts, while against the Mets he has gone 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts.

The Phillies have been a bad offensive team so far as they come in ranked 29th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.99 rpg, while also ranking 21st in hitting at .248 and 28th in homers with 114. On the mound, they have been a bit below average as they come in ranked 18th in the league in ERA at 4.56, while also ranking 19th in WHIP at 1.39.

Trends

New York is:

  • 2-6 in their last eight games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30
  • 0-6 in their last six Sunday games

Philadelphia is:

  • 8-2 in their last 10 vs the National League East
  • 6-0 in their last six Sunday games

The Phillies are back to struggling and the Mets have really hit them hard in this series so far, but still, I feel that the Phils can steal this one. Zach Eflin returned to the team in his last start and had a solids outing as he allowed just two ERs on seven hits in seven innings of work in a 5-2 road win of the Braves. He is 0-1 in his career, but with a 3.27 ERA in two starts. Chris Flexen has not had a good start to his MLB career as he is 1-1 with an 8.49 ERA in his first three starts. He has pitched just 11.2 innings and has allowed 17 hits and 11 ERs in those innings. The Phillies are not a good offensive team, but they should be able to hit this guy. The Mets have owned this team over the year, but I look for Philadelphia to pull one out here.

Pick: Philadelphia -115

The Phillies are a pathetic offensive team right now as they have averaged just 3.10 rpg in their last 10 games. The Mets have put up 17 runs in the first two gamers of this series, but they did score just 14 total runs in their previous six games. Still this has the feel of a high-scoring game. Chris Flexen has an 8.49 ERA in his first three career starts, including a 12.0 ERA in his two road starts. HIs games have averaged 12.00 rpg so far. Zach Eflin had a strong outing in his last game, but he did have a 13.20 ERA in his previous three starts and he has a 6.23 ERA in 10 career day starts. Eflin also has a 7.12 ERA in four home starts and those games have averaged 11.50 rpg. He will be taking on a Met offense that has looked good in this series and has averaged 5.33 rpg on the road. The first two in this series has gone Over the total and the Over is now 75-36-5 the last 116 games in this series. Take the Over in this one.

Pick: Over 10

Confidence: 5

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David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.