Pirates vs. Brewers, 9-13-2017 - Prediction & Preview

Game Snapshot

#907 Pittsburgh Pirates
vs.
#908 Milwaukee Brewers

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates (68-77 SU, 75-70 RL, 58-81-6 O/U) vs Milwaukee Brewers (75-69 SU, 77-67 RL, 61-76-7 O/U)

When: 8:10 PM EDT, Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Where: Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Lines: Milwaukee -162/Pittsburgh +152

Total: 8.5

Tonight a pair of National League Central Foes will square off as the Pittsburgh Pirates invade Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wisconsin to rumble with the Milwaukee Brewers in the final game of their three-game series. Pitching Probables: The Pirates will send out Tyler Glasnow (2-6, 7.45 ERA) in this one and he will be opposed by Chase Anderson (9-3, 2.93 ERA).

Brault/ Pen Blank Brewers In Game One

The Pittsburgh Pirates have not had a great year and the reason that they will miss the postseason is due to an offense that has been among the worst in the league all year. The pitching has been solid and the pirates are starting to look at some younger pitchers. One of them is Steven Brault and in game one of this series, he was making just his 2nd start of the year. It was a good one as he beat these Brewers by a score of 7-0 and allowed just one hit and one walk in 6.0 innings of work in the game. He is now 1-0 with a 4.38 ERA on the year. The pen then came in and allowed just two hits and one walk over the final three innings. Starling Marte (6th) Andrew McCutchen (24th) and Jordy Mercer (14th) all hit homers in the game. Pittsburgh will try and continue to play spoiler in this series. They have gone 29-43 on the road and have averaged 4.31 rpg and have allowed 4.65 rpg in those games. Tyler Glasnow will get the nod for the Pirates and he has gone 2-6 with a 7.45 ERA in 12 starts on the year, including 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA in his last three starts and 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA in five starts out on the road. Glasnow is 2-8 with a 6.88 ERA in 16 career starts overall and he is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in one career start against the Brewers. That start was earlier this year art home and he lost 6-2, allowing three ERs on six hits and two walks in 6.1 innings of work in the process.  

Pittsburgh has been a poor offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 28th in the league in scoring, putting up just 4.14 rpg, while also ranking 28th in hitting at .245 and 29th in homers with 140. On the mound, they have been decent so far as they come in ranked 12th in the league in ERA at 4.26, while also ranking 15th in WHIP at 1.36.

Brewers Still Have Shot At Division Title

The Milwaukee Brewers had a very good weekend as they swept the Cubs in Chicago to close the gap in the National League Central to just two games behind them. The Brewers outscored Chicago 20-3 in the series, but they must have been ripe for a letdown as they came home and lost 7-0 to the Pirates in game one of this series. If Milwaukee would like to keep their hopes alive for a division title, then they cannot afford to lose games at home against a bad road team that is not in the playoff picture. It was a bad loss for them, but they are still 9-6 in their last 15 games and while they can win the division, they could also get in as a wildcard as they are just 3.5 games behind the Rockies for the 2nd wildcard slot in the National League. The Brewers have gone 39-33 here at home for the year and have averaged 4.64 rpg and have allowed 4.60 rpg in those games. The Brewers will trot out Chase Anderson in this one and he has gone 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 21 starts on the year, including 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA in his last three starts and 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA in nine starts here at home. Anderson has gone 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 14 career starts in Sept/ Oct and he is 11-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 24 career starts here at Miller Park, while against the Pirates he has gone 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA in nine starts.   

The Brewers have been a below average offensive team so far as they come in ranked 21st in the league in scoring, putting up 4.50 rpg, while also ranking 24th in hitting at .247 and 8th in homers with 202. On the mound, they have been solid so far as they come in ranked 9th in the league in ERA at 4.06, while also ranking 14th in WHIP at 1.36.

Trends

Pittsburgh is:

  • The Under is 5-0 in their last five vs. a team with a winning record
  • 9-4-1 in their last 14 vs. the National League Central

Milwaukee is:

  • The Under is 4-1 in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record
  • The Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings here in Milwaukee

This is a very big game for the Brewers as they are just a couple games out of first in the National League Central, but they didn’t play that well in the opener of this series as they fell by a score of 7-0. Despite scoring 15 runs in a game against the Cubs the other day, the Brewers have still averaged just 3.80 rpg in their last 10 games. This is not an offense that is doing well right now and even though Tyler Glasnow has struggled this year he did hold the Brewers to just three ERs in 6.1 innings of work in his lone meeting against them. The Pirates have also struggled on offense of late as they have averaged just 3.70 rpg in their last 10 games and Matt Garza has a decent 3.92 ERA here at home. Pittsburgh’s last 10 games have averaged just 6.50 rpg, while Milwaukee’s last 10 games have averaged just 7.40 rpg. THis looks like an Under play to me.  

Pick: Under

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David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.