Reds vs. Cardinals, 9-13-2017 - Prediction & Preview

Game Snapshot

#910 St. Louis Cardinals
vs.
#909 Cincinnati Reds

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Cincinnati Reds (62-82; 76-62-6 O/U)  vs. St. Louis Cardinals (75-68; 72-63-8 O/U)

MLB: Wednesday, September 13, 2017 at 8:15pm EST

Line: St. Louis -165/Cincinnati +155

Total: 9

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds will continue a three game divisional series Wednesday night from Busch Stadium. The Reds will give the nod to 22-year old right-hander Tyler Mahle, and the Cardinals will counter with 21-year old right-hander Jack Flaherty. The Reds lead the season series 8-5.

Mahle Targets First Major League Win

Tyler Mahle will make his fourth career start, searching for his first career victory. Mahle allowed three runs and walked four in four innings to the Mets in his previous start, and was charged with the loss. The rookie right-hander did toss six shutout innings in his second start, and has now conceded a total of six runs to go with an 0-2 record in 15 innings pitched on the season. Mahle has not allowed a home run through his first three starts. Zack Cozart has been very productive as of late, belting two homers along with nine RBI’s over his last eight games. The career .254 hitter is having a tremendous season, sporting a .304 average with 19 home runs and 57 RBI’s. Cozart has recorded a hit in 12 of 41 at bats with one RBI against the Cardinals pitching this season

The Reds are now averaging 4.76 runs per game, good for 11th in the Majors, and are hitting .255 as a team. The Cincinnati pitching has been awful, posting a 5.23 team ERA, placing them down at 29th in the Majors.

Flaherty Shines in Second Career Start

Jack Flaherty will make his third career start, aiming for his first victory. Flaherty was solid in his previous start, holding the Padres to only one run on three hits in five innings and finished with the no decision in a game the Cardinals won. The rookie right-hander was hit hard in his Major League debut, allowing five runs to the Giants and took the loss. Flaherty was outstanding in the Minors this season, posting a stifling 2.18 ERA in 148.2 innings of work. Jose Martinez is the hottest hitter on the Cardinals right now, belting three home runs along with eight RBI’s over his last eight games. The 29-year old rookie is having a solid season, sporting a .308 average with 13 home runs and 36 RBI’s in 91 games. Martinez has collected a hit in 3 of 17 at bats five RBI’s against the Reds this season.

The Cardinals are currently averaging 4.74 runs per game, ranking them 14th in the Majors, and feature a .259 team batting average. The St. Louis pitching is carrying a strong 3.86 team ERA, good for seventh in the Majors.

Trends:

The Cincinnati Reds are:

  • over is 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning record.
  • over is 10-4 in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record.

The St. Louis Cardinals are:

  • over is 5-0-1 in their last 5 home games against the Reds.
  • over is 8-3-2 in their last 13 Wednesday games.

I am taking the over in this matchup. Flaherty was roughed up in his debut at the beginning of the month and he walked four in his second start, so the Reds should plate some runs against the rookie. Furthermore, Mahle has also walked eight batters in his three starts and he will not pitch deep into the game, so the Cardinals should see a lot of the Reds weak bullpen that has allowed the most runs of any bullpen in the Majors.

Pick: Over

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.