Braves vs. Mets, 2nd game, 9-25-2017 - Pick and Prediction

Game Snapshot

#905 Atlanta Braves
vs.
#906 New York Mets

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Atlant Braves (70-83; 77-71-5 O/U) vs. New York Mets (66-88; 87-55-12 O/U)

MLB: Monday, September 25, 2017 at TBA

Line: New York -130/Atlanta +120

Total: 9

The New York Mets will clash with the Atlanta Braves in the back end of a doubleheader Monday night from Citi Field. The Braves will give the call to 23-year old left-hander Matt Fried, and 27-year old right-hander Seth Lugo will take the mound for the Mets. The Mets lead the season series 9-6.

Fried Seeks Second Straight Road Win

Max Fried will make his eighth appearance and third start of the season, aiming for his second career win. Fried allowed three runs in 3.2 innings to the Marlins in his latest start on September 9th. The rookie right-hander has conceded a total of nine runs (eight earned) in 16.1 innings pitched on the season. Fried has issued 10 walks on the season. He struggled in the Minors this year, posting a 5.54 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 92.2 innings logged. Kurt Suzuki is finishing his season off strong, belting three homers along with five RBI’s this month, and owns a solid .327 average this month. The 33-year old catcher is having a decent season, hitting .271 with 18 home runs and 47 RBI’s in 76 games. Suzuki has collected three RBI’s against the Mets this season.

The Braves are scoring an average of 4.59 runs per game, ranking them 20th in the Major Leagues. and are hitting .263 as a team. The Atlanta pitching is carrying a weak 4.76 team ERA, placing them 25th in the Majors.

Lugo Targets Second Win Vs Braves this Season

Seth Lugo will get the call for the 18th time of the season, looking to improve his record to 7-4. Lugo was outstanding in his previous performance, limiting the Marlins to one run in five innings and recorded the win. The young right-hander has not been able to pitch well with any consistency this season, and as a result he stands at 6-5 with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 91.1 innings pitched. He held the Braves to one run in seven innings in the lone meeting this season, and has now conceded only two runs with a 2-0 record in 14 career innings against Atlanta. Lugo has only logged six innings in a start in one out of his last eight starts. Brandon Nimmo has really responded to his increased playing time this month, recording 12 RBI’s. The 24-year old left fielder could be an everyday starter for the Mets next season. He is currently hitting .260 with four homers and 18 RBI’s in 61 games played. Nimmo is 2 for 11 with one RBI against the Braves this season.

The Mets are currently averaging 4.60 runs per game, ranking them 18th overall, and own a .251 team batting average. The New York pitching possesses a 5.04 team ERA, positioning them down at 28th in the Majors.

Trends:

The Atlanta Braves are:

  • 5-12 in their last 17 road games against a right-handed starter.
  • 0-7 in their last 7 Monday games.
  • 2-7 in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record.

The New York Mets are:

  • 11-2 in Lugo’s last 13 starts against a team with a losing record.
  • 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing record.
  • 5-1 in their last 6 games against the Braves.

I am taking the Mets in this contest. Lugo limited the Braves to only one run in seven innings in the lone meeting this season, and he has pitched well at home this season, posting a stifling 2.81 ERA in his five home starts. Furthermore, Fried has been shaky, allowing nine runs and 10 walks in his 16.1 innings pitched at the Major League level this season, plus he posted a terrible 5.54 ERA in the Minors this season.

 

Pick: New York Mets -130

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.