Nationals vs. Phillies, 9-25-2017 - Prediction & Preview

Game Snapshot

#904 Philadelphia Phillies
vs.
#903 Washington Nationals

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Washington Nationals (93-61; 67-77-10 O/U) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (61-94; 68-73-14 O/U)

MLB: Monday, September 25, 2017 at 7:05pm EST

Line: Philadelphia -128/Washington +118

Total: 8.5

The Philadelphia Phillies will clash with the Washington Nationals in the series opener Monday evening from Citizens Bank Park. The Nationals will give the starting nod to 25-year old right-hander A.J. Cole, and the Phillies will send 24-year old right-hander Aaron Nola to the mound. The Nationals own a 10-6 lead in the season series.

Cole Seeks Second Win vs Phillies this Season

A.J. Cole will make his tenth appearance and eighth start of the season, aiming for win number three. Cole allowed three runs in five innings to the Dodgers in his previous start, and took the loss to bring his record to 2-5. The 6-foot-5 right-hander has been decent this season, posting a 4.43 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 42.2 innings of work. He has limited the Phillies to one run in eight innings this season, and possesses a 1-1 record with a 3.63 ERA in 17.1 career innings against Philadelphia. Freddy Galvis is 2 for 4 against Cole, while Odubel Herrera is 0 for 9, and Maikel Franco is 1 for 5. Ryan Zimmerman is swinging a red hot bat, belting three home runs along with eight RBI’s over his last four games. The 32-year old first baseman leads the Nats in homers and RBI’s, currently hitting .302 with 34 home runs and 103 RBI’s. Zimmermann has registered 12 RBI’s against the Phillies this season.

The Nationals are averaging 5.11 runs per game, good for third in the Majors, and are hitting .266 as a team. The Washington pitching is looking good, featuring a 3.87 team ERA, good for sixth in the Major Leagues.

Nola Targets Third Straight Win

Aaron Nola will take the mound for the 27th time of the season, targeting win number 13. Nola was very sharp in his previous start, holding the Dodgers to only two runs over seven innings and collected the win. The Phillies’ ace is having a strong season, sporting a 3.56 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP accompanied with a 12-10 record in 162 innings pitched. He has held his own against the Nationals this season, allowing six runs (seven earned) with a 1-0 record in 16.1 innings, and stands at 1-3 with a 4.69 ERA in nine career starts against the rivals. Daniel Murphy is 8 for 20 with three RBI’s against Nola, while Anthony Rendon is 4 for 17, and Ryan Zimmermann is 3 for 17. Nick Williams has managed to have success against the Nationals tough pitching this season, going 8 for 18 with five RBI’s. The 24-year old right fielder is having a tremendous rookie campaign, posting a .288 average with 11 home runs and 52 RBI’s. Williams is having a sizzling month of September, driving in 22 runs.

The Phillies are scoring an average of 4.23 runs per game, ranking them 27th overall, and are hitting .250 as a team. The Philadelphia pitching  owns a 4.65 team ERA, positioning them 22nd overall.

Trends:

The Washington Nationals are:

  • 1-5 in Cole’s last 6 starts.
  • 2-8 in Cole’s last 10 starts against a team with a losing record.
  • 1-4 in Cole’s last 5 starts in the first game of a series.

The Philadelphia Phillies are:

  • 6-1 in Nola’s last 7 home starts.
  • 4-0 in Nola’s last 4 starts on five days of rest.
  • 7-3 in their last 10 home games.

I am taking a shot with the Phillies in this matchup, however my stronger play is on the total. Nola has pitched well against the Nationals this season, holding them to seven runs (six earned) in 16.1 innings this season, plus he has only allowed a total of five earned runs in his last three starts. Furthermore, the Nationals are only averaging 3.9 runs over their last ten games, so the Phillies have a decent chance with their ace on the hill.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -128

Nola has pitched well against the Nationals this season, and Cole has shut down the Phillies. Nola owns a stellar 2.98 ERA in his 13 home starts this season, and the under is 9-4 in their last 13 home games against the Nationals. Cole has limited the Phillies to one run in eight innings this season, and the under is 20-7-4 in their last 31 road games.

Pick: Under 8.5

4

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.