Brewers vs. Rockies, 9/30/16 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#908 Colorado Rockies
vs.
#907 Milwaukee Brewers

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Milwaukee Brewers (71-88) vs. Colorado Rockies (74-84)

MLB: Friday, September 30, 2016 at 8:10pm EST

Line: Colorado -174/Milwaukee +164

Total: 12.5

The Colorado Rockies will host the Milwaukee Brewers as the as the teams begin their final series of the season Friday night from Coors Field. The Brewers will be sending 27-year old left hander Brent Suter to the mound, and the Rockies will respond with 27-year old right hander Chad Bettis.

Suter Looks to Bring Relief Success to Starting Role

Brent Suter will make his 14th appearance and second start of the season in this matchup. Suter has been pitching in a relief role this month, and has fared well, allowing only four runs in 16.1 innings pitched, and he made one start where he conceded four runs in 4.1 innings. The 27-year old left hander put up good numbers in the Minors this year, posting a 3.50 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP in 110.2 innings pitched.

Jonathan Villar is ending his season on a high note, notching seven RBI’s over his last three games, which included a big five RBI night against the Rangers earlier this week. The 25-year old shortstop did have his average near the .300 mark for about a month, and overall Villar is having a solid first full season in the Majors, hitting .285 with 19 home run and 63 RBI’s. The Brewers offense has struggled this month and are now averaging 4.15 runs per game, ranking them 25th overall, and own a .244 team batting average. The Milwaukee pitching has improved, now featuring a 4.10 team ERA, positioning them 13th in the Majors.

Bettis Looks to Bounce Back from Rough Outing

Chad Bettis will get the nod as he make his 32nd start of the season, looking to improve his record to 14-8. Bettis was cranked by the Dodgers in his latest start, surrendering seven runs in 4.2 innings and was hit with the loss. The young right hander is having a very rocky season, posting a weak 4.92 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in 179.1 innings logged. He faced the Brewers just one this season back in August and conceded four runs (three earned), and has now allowed five runs(four earned) in 11.1 career innings pitched against Milwaukee. Chris Carer is 1 for 3 with a home run against Bettis, and Ryan Braun is 1 for 6.

DJ LeMahieu continues to rack up the hits at a rapid pace, now hitting .371 this month after he hit a dazzling .439 last month, and now has 11 home runs with 66 RBI’s. The career .300 hitter is on on his way to winning the batting title as he is now hitting a Major League leading .349, and Daniel Murphy is unlikely to play this weekend.. The Rockies offense has been cold as of late, but they are stilling averaging 5.27 runs per game, good for second in the Major Leagues, and own a .274 team batting average. The Colorado pitching has struggled all season, posting  4.93 team ERA, ranking them down at 28th overall.

Trends:

The Milwaukee Brewers are:

  • over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning home record.
  • over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games.

The Colorado Rockies are:

  • over is 20-6-1 in their last 27 games against Milwaukee.
  • over is 7-1 in their last 8 games against a left handed starter.
  • over is 5-1 in their last 6 in the first game of a series.

I like the over in this one. We have the rookie Suter making his second career start and he cannot be trusted against the Rockies’ powerful offense, and he conceded four runs in 4.1 innings in his only other start this season, so I think the Rockies offense will be all over him. Also Bettis will give up runs, he just gave up five runs in his previous start and he has only pitched past the sixth inning in three out of his last eight starts, plus the Rockies have the worst bullpen ERA in the Majors so I expect the Brewers to score some runs in this one as well.

Prediction: Over 12.5

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.