Padres vs. Diamondbacks, 9/30/16 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#911 San Diego Padres
#912 Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB Baseball:  Friday, September 30th, 9:40 pm EST

Line:  Arizona -149/San Diego +139

Total: 10.5

Probables:  Edwin Jackson (5-6, 5.77 ERA) vs. Braden Shipley (4-5, 5.26 ERA)

The Padres and Diamondbacks kick off their final series of the year with last place in the NL West on the line.  No, it wasn’t these two teams had hoped for at the beginning of the year, but it’s where they find themselves.  The Padres can’t be shocked to be here, but the Diamondbacks had bigger aspirations and were expected to compete with the Giants and Dodgers for the division title.  With games to be played on Thursday, the Padres are currently two games up on the Diamondbacks to avoid last place.

Edwin Jackson goes for the Padres

San Diego starter Edwin Jackson came over mid-season from the Miami Marlins and will now be making his final start with the Padres.  His Win/Loss record hasn’t been too bad, as he stands at 5-6 for a losing team, but his ERA is approaching six, leaving much to be desired.  His WHIP of 1.60 and his batting average against of .284 are both way too high.  In his last start, he gave up just to runs against San Francisoc at home, but also had five walk. He’s had three quality starts over his last four, but just five in his last 10. He is now 33 years old and you have to wonder how much time he has left in the league.

Shipley has shown some good signs

As with everyone pitching this Friday, Braden Shipley will be making his last start of the year.  The rookie pitcher will be making his 11th career start and 13th career appearance.  At only 24 years old, he’ll likely be in the Diamondbacks rotation for years to come.  He hasn’t shown much this year with a high WHIP, batting average against, and a terrible 40/24, K/BB ratio, but he is only 24 years old, so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. In his last start, he gave up just two runs in six innings at Baltimore, but the D-backs fell 2-1 on Sept. 25.  He’s faced San Diego twice this season and has given up 10 runs (nine earned) in 10.1 innings.

Baseball Trends:

The San Diego Padres are:

  • 6-2 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
  • 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are:

  • 17-35 in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • 19-43 in their last 62 games vs. a right-handed starter.

San Diego has actually played pretty well down the stretch.  They have won their first two games against the Dodgers in their penultimate series, and have won three of four overall.  They would like to avoid last place more than the Diamondbacks who threw in the towel months ago.  I think they win at least two of three in this final series and start it off with a win on Friday.

Prediction: San Diego

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Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.