Mavericks vs. Rockets, 10/30/16 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#713 Dallas Mavericks
vs.
#714 Houston Rockets

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Dallas Mavericks (0-2; 0-2 ATS; 1-1 O/U) vs. Houston Rockets (1-1; 1-1 ATS; 1-1 O/U)

NBA: Sunday, October 30, 2016 at 8:00pm EST

Line: Houston -6

Total: 216

The Houston Rockets will welcome the Dallas Mavericks to the Toyota Center in the back end of  a home and home set on Sunday evening. The Rockets defeated the Mavericks 106-98 Friday night. The division rivals each won two games in last year’s season series.

Mavericks Drop Home Opener to Rockets

The Dallas Mavericks dropped their second straight game to start the season, losing 106-98 to the Rockets in their home opener Friday night. Harrison Barnes was terrific, making 13 of 23 shots from the field in a tremendous 31 point effort. It will be very interesting to see how Harrison Barnes performs in a bigger role this season. Barnes spent the last three seasons with the Golden State Warriors but was never in the spotlight in the Warriors star-studded lineup. The 2012 seventh overall pick averaged 11.7 points per game last season, and will get a chance to live up to his potential in Dallas after signing a huge four year, 94 million dollar deal. Newly signed Andrew Bogut only scored four points in the loss, but he did collect 12 rebounds. Devon Williams put up just 14 points in the loss to Houstonm after scoring 25 points in the season opener. Dirk Nowitzki sat out the home opener with a stomach illness, but will play in this contest. The 18-year veteran scored 22 points in the season opening loss.

Dallas averaged 102.3 points per game last season, ranking them 16th overall, and have scored 121 and 98 points respectively in their first two games this season. The Mavericks conceded an average of 102.6 points per game last year, ranking them 14th overall, and allowed 130 points in overtime in their first game, and conceded 98 points against the Rockets Friday night.

Rockets Spoil Mavericks Home Opener

The Houston Rockets bounced back from their loss to the Lakers by going into Dallas and defeating the Mavericks by a 106-98 score. James Harden started the game very slow, scoring zero points in the first quarter, but found his groove and sank a total of 26 points, shooting 50% from the field. The Rockets star was outstanding in game one as well, scoring 34 points with 17 rebounds, nearly picking up the triple-double. Harden averaged 29 points per game last season, ranking him second behind only Stephen Curry. Houston can’t rely solely on James Harden again this year, and will need players such a Trevor Ariza to have a consistent season. The 31-year old small forward struggled in the season opener, scoring only seven points, but rebounded with a solid 27 point effort in the win against Dallas, which included a sizzling 5 for 7 mark from three point range. Ariza averaged a career high 16 points per game last season.

Houston is very strong on offense, scoring an average of 106.5 point per game last season, ranking them fourth in the NBA. The Rockets were awful defensively last season, conceding an average of 106.4 points per game, ranking them down at 25th overall. Houston allowed the Lakers to shoot 51% in the season opener, but held the Mavericks to 43.8 % shooting in the Friday night win.

Trends:

The Dallas Mavericks are:

  • 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
  • 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.

The Houston Rockets are:

  • 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
  • 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.

I am taking the points with the Mavericks. The Mavericks really missed Nowitzki Friday night, however he is back in the lineup for this contest which is a big boost, and I expect Dallas to come out strong after losing two games to start the season. Houston shot 47.1% from the field on Friday but I can’t see them repeating that performance, and the Mavericks will shoot better then their 8 for 29 performance from three point range on Friday night. I don’t like Houston’s defensive play, they conceded 120 points to the Lakers in their season opener, and I think Dallas rebounds with a strong shooting performance.

Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.