Dayton vs. UMass, 01/11/17 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#730 University of Massachusetts Amherst Minutemen
vs.
#729 University of Dayton Flyers

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Dayton Flyers v. UMass Minutemen at William D. Mullens Memorial Center in Amherst, Massachusetts

Wednesday, January 11th, 2017 at 7:00 p.m. EST

Point Spread: Dayton Flyers -6

Over/Under: 143.5

The UMass Minutemen are hosting the Dayton Flyers in this Atlantic 10 matchup. These two teams are on the opposite ends of the spectrum in conference play. The Minutemen are 10-6, but they started their Atlantic 10 schedule 0-3. Meanwhile, Dayton is 12-3, and they’re undefeated in the Atlantic 10 with a 3-0 record against conference opponents. Will the Flyers keep on winning as they head up to Massachusetts for a date with the Minutemen?

Dayton flies past Rhode Island

The Dayton Flyers picked up their fifth consecutive win by beating the Rhode Island Rams 67-64 on Friday night. Scoochie Smith carried the Flyers in the win. Smith poured in a game-high 21 points to go with 6 assists, 5 rebounds, and 4 steals. The senior guard has been excellent for the Flyers. He’s had four consecutive games with at least 10 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists. Smith earned the A10 Player of the Week honors with his terrific play for the Flyers.

Dayton scored just enough points to get the win on Friday. The Flyers made 47% of their shots from the field in their victory over Rhode Island, but they made just 33% of their three-point attempts. Their offense has been pretty impressive this season. Dayton has been one of the Atlantic 10’s best shooting teams this season. They’re the second best in field goal percentage and third in three-point field goal percentage. The Flyers are making nearly 48% of their shots from the field, and they’re connecting on over 37% of their threes.

UMass dominated by VCU

The Massachusetts Minutemen kept up with the VCU Rams in the first half of Saturday’s 64-81 loss. However, UMass was outscored by 13 points in the second half, which ultimately doomed the Minutemen. Rashaan Holloway did everything he could to prevent the loss. The 6’11” sophomore put up 22 points, 11 rebounds, 4 blocks, and a steal. It was his second consecutive double-double. The Minutemen will likely need Holloway to carry them in order to get a win against Dayton.

The Minutemen’s offense was sloppy in the loss to VCU. UMass turned the ball over 14 times against the Rams. Massachusetts has been turning the ball over at an alarming rate. They’re averaging over 15 turnovers per game. The Minutemen have the most turnovers in the Atlantic 10 conference. UMass has turned the ball over 46 times during their three-game losing streak. They’ll try to clean up their act on Wednesday night.

Trends

The Dayton Flyers are:

  • 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

The UMass Minutemen are:

  • 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss.
  • 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games.
  • 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Atlantic 10.

These two teams are heading in opposite directions. The Flyers have won five straight games, while the Minutemen have dropped their last three. Dayton has looked great on the road this season. They’re undefeated in away games so far. Meanwhile, UMass was beaten by 12 points in their first Atlantic 10 game at home in Amherst. The Dayton Flyers beat the Massachusetts Minutemen by 30 points last season, and I think they could run away from them again in this one. I like the Flyers to win and cover on the road in this one.

Pick: Dayton Flyers -6

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Jake Domonkos

When he's not watching sports or making picks, Jake enjoys playing pick-up basketball, rec-league softball, ping pong, and drinking good beer. Jake closely follows all four major sports and uses the latest trends and up-to-date statistical analysis to make his picks.