Cal State Fullerton vs. Cal Poly , 01/12/17 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#568 California Polytechnic State University Mustangs
vs.
#567 California State University, Fullerton Titans

Thursday, January 1 2017, at 10:00pm EST

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Cal State Fullerton vs. Cal Poly

NCAA Basketball:  Thursday, January 12th, 10:00 pm EST

Line: Cal Poly -4.5

Total: 138.5

Cal State Fullerton heads to Cal Poly to take on the Mustangs on Thursday night.  The Titans are 7-8 and 1-1 in the Big West while Cal Poly is 5-10 and 0-1 in conference.  Neither team has been impressive this year, but in a year in which the Big West is one of the worst conferences in college basketball, they may just be near the top of the standings near the end of the year.

Neither team has been a juggernaut in the covering department either.  Fullerton is 4-8 against the spread overall and 0-4 on the road.  Cal Poly is 6-9 ATS overall, but is actually a very good 4-1 ATS at home.

Fullerton splits their first two in conference

Cal State Fullerton split their first two games in the Big West, losing to Northridge after posting a win over Hawaii.  The win over Hawaii was by three points, which would have been impressive against last season’s Hawaii team but they are very down this year.  Meanwhile, the loss to Northridge may have raced some red flags.  They were beating by five at home after holding an eight point half time lead.  They couldn’t hold it down the stretch however.

The one positive was the play of Lionheart Leslie who had 17 points.  The guy with my favorite name in college hoops has been the Titans best player this year, averaging 12.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists.

Cal Poly starts the Big West with a loss

Cal Poly started the season off with a loss in the Big West.  Honestly, it seems like every team loses, even in conference!  They lost by four points at UC Davis, and considering the Aggies are one of the favorites to win the conference, the loss really isn’t a bad one.  The Mustangs were down four at half and kept it close the whole second half, but just couldn’t close the game out.

They could blame their field goal shooting, three point shooting, and even missed free throws for the loss.  They shot only 24 of 65 from the floor, nine of 30 from the three pint line, and missed six of their 13 free throws.  In a four point game, all those missed shots could have made the difference.

The Cal State Fullerton Titans are:

  • 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
  • 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
  • 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
  • 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Cal Poly Mustangs are:

  • (no trends available)

Some time picking the winning side against the spread is pretty darn easy.  That’s how I feel with this game.  Cal State Fullerton is 0-4 ATS on the road, and Cal Poly is 4-1 at home against the spread.  May sound simplistic, but that’s enough for me.  Let’s take the Mustangs.

Pick: Cal Poly

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Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.