Iowa vs. Purdue, 01/12/17 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#560 University of Iowa Hawkeyes
vs.
#559 Purdue University Boilermakers

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

#17 Purdue Boilermakers (14-3 SU, 9-5 ATS, 8-5-1 O/U) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (10-7 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)

NCAAB: Thursday, January 12, 2017, Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, Iowa, 9 pm ET

Spread: Purdue -6, Over/Under: 156.5

It’s a matchup between a pair of Big Ten Conference schools on the hardwood. The #17 Purdue Boilermakers are on the road as they travel to face the Iowa Hawkeyes Thursday night. Purdue won its second straight and ninth in the last 10 games by dropping #13 Wisconsin 66-55 at home Sunday. Iowa picked up their seventh win in the last nine as they edged Rutgers 68-62 at home Sunday. The teams have split the last ten meetings with the Boilermakers rolling to an 89-67 win in the first meeting this season on December 28, 2016.

 

Purdue Boilermakers Go For Season Sweep

Purdue clobbered Iowa in West Lafayette and will go for the season sweep in this contest. The Boilermakers are coming off a win over a ranked Wisconsin team. Purdue led by six at the half and built on that advantage in the second half to pick up the win. The Boilermakers knocked down 52.2 percent from the field in the game and hit 7 of 15 three point attempts. Purdue controlled the glass by a 34-22 margin and limited Wisconsin to 39 percent shooting to help overcome 18 turnovers. Caleb Swanigan led the Boilermakers with 18 points and 13 rebounds in the win.

The Boilermakers are 29th in the nation as they average 82.9 points per game. Purdue is 30th in rebounding with 40.2 boards a contest and 2nd as they dish out 19.5 assists a night. The Boilermakers are 48th in scoring defense as they allow 65.4 points per game. Purdue is shooting 48.8 percent from the floor. The Boilermakers are knocking down 9.4 threes a night on blistering 40.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Swanigan leads the team with 18.3 points, 12.7 rebounds plus 2.7 assists a night. Isaac Haas is good for 13.4 points a game while Vince Edwards chips in 11.9 points plus 5.2 boards and 3.5 assists a contest. Carsen Edwards and Dakota Mathias are each scoring at least 9.8 points a game as well for the Boilermakers. Spike Albrecht, Basil Smotherman, Ryan Cline and P.J. Thompson all play valuable minutes in the rotation.

Iowa Hawkeyes Try to Avenge Loss to Purdue

Iowa was crushed in the first meeting this season with the Boilermakers. The Hawkeyes managed to knock off Rutgers at home and look to square the season series here. Iowa was tied at the half but outscored Rutgers 36-30 in the second half to pick up the win. The Hawkeyes shot 43.4 percent from the field and went 6 of 20 from beyond the arc. Iowa won the game at the free throw line as they sank 16 of 23 attempts in the contest while Rutgers hit just two of four. The Hawkeyes forced 17 turnovers and held Rutgers to 38.4 percent shooting to overcome their 18 turnovers. Iowa was led by Peter Jok, who had 18 points and 11 rebounds.

The Hawkeyes are 28th in the nation in scoring offense as they put up 83 points a game. Iowa is tied for 16th in the nation in rebounding by collecting 40.8 rebounds per game and stand 30th with 17.1 assists per game. The Hawkeyes are struggling defensively as they are tied for 285th in scoring defense by allowing 77.4 points a night. Iowa shoots 45.9 percent from the floor as a team this season. The Hawkeyes knock down 8.9 three pointers a night on 36.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Jok leads the team with 22.6 points plus 6.4 boards per night. Tyler Cook contributes 12.3 points plus 5.1 rebounds a night is one of two other Iowa players that scores in double figures. Nicholas Baer, Brady Ellingson, Dom Uhl, Cordell Pemsl (10 points, 5.2 boards), Jordan Bohannon, Isaiah Moss, Ahmad Wagner and Christian Williams all play double digit minutes for the Hawkeyes and need to contribute when given the opportunity.

Trends:

Purdue

  • Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win
  • Boilermakers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten

Iowa

  • Hawkeyes are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
  • Hawkeyes are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big Ten

Iowa has played well of late but they have serious deficiencies on the defensive end. That’s where they major split between the two schools come from. Both are excellent offensive units but the Hawkeyes are substantially worse on the defensive end of the floor. That was seen in the first meeting this season and it’s hard to see Iowa making massive strides in just a couple of weeks. Purdue, even on the road, gets the nod in this one as they sweep the season series.

Pick: Purdue Boilermakers -6

Both teams have played well of late with Purdue winning nine of their last ten while Iowa has seven wins in their last ten games. The Hawkeyes have been very good at home this season, going 9-1, and will test Purdue. The Boilermakers haven’t done much on the road this season as they are just 1-1 as the visiting team. Purdue has gone 0-2 ATS on the road this season. Iowa needs to develop some secondary scoring options to make things happen.

The Boilermakers have gone over the total in their last six on Thursday. Purdue has also gone over in four of their last five on the road and in four of their last five on the road against teams with a winning home record. Iowa has gone over the total in seven of their last eight at home against teams with a winning road record. The Hawkeyes have gone over in six of their last eight after an ATS loss. This one seems like it will go over given the offensive outputs of both teams this season.

Over

3

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Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.