Pacific vs. Pepperdine, 01/12/17 - Preview & Prediction

Game Snapshot

#573 Pepperdine University Waves
vs.
#574 Pacific University Tigers

Thursday, January 1 2017, at 10:00pm EST

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Pepperdine vs. Pacific

NCAA Basketball:  Thursday, January 12th, 10:00 pm EST

Line: Pacific -4.5

Total: 139.5

Pepperdine travels to Pacific to take on the Tigers on Thursday night in a West Coast Conference battle.  Neither will be finishing in the top two this year, as Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga have separated themselves once again, but both teams would hope to at least finish in the middle tier.  That may be a reach as both teams have started 1-3 in conference.  Overall, the Waves are 5-11 and the Tigers are 7-10.

The poor records are only one part of the story, as they have both been bad against the spread as well.  Particularly Pepperdine.  They are 4-12 ATS and an abominable 1-7 on the road.  Pacific is 6-9-2 overall and 4-5-1 at home.

Pepperdine is 1-3 in conference

The Waves have gotten off to a 1-3 record in the ultra competitive WCC.  While it’s dominated by Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga this truly is a tough conference night in and night out.  The Waves started conference play with losses to Gonzaga and Portland, then beat Loyola Marymount by a point, before losing to San Diego by eight.  They now go on a tough stretch of Pacific, Santa Clara, BYU, and Saint Mary’s with three of those four on the road.

On offense, the lone bright spot has been the play of Lamond Murray, Jr.  You may have heard of his Dad who played for the Cal Bears with Jason Kidd and then for multiple NBA teams.  The younger Murray is averaging 19.2 points and 5.5 rebounds and  he’s a very good shooter, just like his father.

UOP is also 1-3

Pacific has also started 1-3 in the WCC, with the lone win being over San Diego by three points on the road.  They have lost by 20 or more points to Gonzaga and BYU and are obviously no match for the top tiered teams of the WCC.  Their latest loss was the 29 pointer to BYU in which only one Tiger scored more than 10 points.

Anthony Townes shot eight of 14 when the team only shot 36% as a team and he scored 18 points.  He’s averaging only 6.9 on the year so it was nice for him to step up even if it was in a blowout loss.  Their leading scorer is Ray Bowles at 13.2 points per game.

The Pepperdine Waves are:

  • 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.
  • 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.

The Pacific Tigers are:

  • (no trends available)

Look at those trends for the Waves.  Ugh, those are ugly.  Not that Pacific has been some juggernaut, but at least they are a decent 4-5-1 ATS at home.  You can’t say that about the Waves on the road who are somehow only 1-8.  The bookies haven’t caught up to their ineptness, so let’s take the Tigers.

Pick: Pacific

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Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.