UNCW vs. William & Mary, 01/12/17 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#531 College of William & Mary Tribe
vs.
#532 University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

William & Mary Tribe 8-6 (3-5 ATS) at UNC Wilmington Seahawks 15-2 (7-6 ATS)

When and Where: Wednesday, Jan. 12, Trask Coliseum, Wilmington, N.C. 7:00pm EST

Spread: UNC Wilmington -12.5; Total: 163

UNC Wilmington rolls into this contest having won 15 of their 17 contests this season and all four Colonial Athletic Association games. The defending conference champions look to make it five straight wins they welcome William & Mary into Trask Coliseum on Thursday night.  The Tribe have won five of their last seven and are 1.5 games behind the Seahawks in the CAA standings.  UNCW leads the all-times series 41-26, however, William & Mary has won three of the last four matchups in Wilmington.

 

Tribe Trying to Get over the Hump

William & Mary’s season went about as expected during the non-conference slate. The Tribe lost the games they should, and beat who they should.  Their worst loss is probably to Hampton while their best win is likely over Liberty.  In their last loss before CAA play, they put up a fight against the Rhode Island Rams before ultimately falling 73-62.  They rebounded from that with an 11-point win over Old Dominion on the road. Conference play saw them drop a contest to Northeastern by 20 on the road before bouncing back with back-to-back wins over Hofstra and Elon.

Senior Daniel Dixon is averaging 23.1 points per game and leads the league through three conference games at 25.3 points per game. Against Elon he scored at least 30 for the second time in his last four outings. W&M leads the conference in assists are 24th in the nation with 17.4 per game. The bench has stepped up as well with 29.9 points per contest, tops in the CAA. Their bench has outscored 10 of 14 opponents this season.

 

 

UNC Wilmington is off to a stellar start. The Seahawks won 10 of their first 11 games with the lone setback coming by five points to Middle Tennessee State. Their only other defeat on the season came by 14 points at Clemson. Since then, they have won four straight, all in conference play. Along they way they picked up victories over the likes of Evansville, Toledo, Western Michigan, Saint Bonaventure, and East Carolina.

The Seahawks lead the conference with 86.8 points per game but W&M is right on their tale with 81.3. “Conference play is tough. It’s really early in the conference and things can change any minute. If you’re not careful, it can spiral on you quickly because there are so many quality opponents in the conference.” said head coach Kevin Keatts.  “You have to play hard every night and can’t take any nights off because anyone can beat you.”

 

 

Trends:

William & Mary is:

  • 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5
  • 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5
  • 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games

UNC Wilmington is:

  • 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games
  • 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite
  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
  • 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record

The Seahawks are looking good to this point but the Tribe are not too shabby either.  Expecting a double-digit victory at this point might be asking a bit much.  William & Mary has the ability to keep it close and some other trends to keep in mind is that the Tribe are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four trips to Wilmington, 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven matchups with the Seahawks, and the road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the two sides.

Pick: William & Marty +12.5

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Chuck D

Chuck Dowling is a 30-something University of Florida J-School alum that lives in his mother’s basement. Just kidding... there are no basements in Florida (the ground is too moist). He has been in the “biz” for his entire adult life and specializes in NCAA football and basketball, as well as soccer, boxing, and MMA. When not writing, Chuck moonlights as a high school athletics radio and internet-television broadcaster.