Arkansas St vs. Arkansas - Little Rock, 02/17/17 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#636 Arkansas St University Red Wolves
vs.
#635 University of Arkansas at Little Rock Trojans

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Ark- Little Rock Trojans (13-13 SU, 7-14-0 ATS, 9-12-0 OU) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (18-8 SU, 14-7-0 ATS, 9-11-1 OU)

When: 8:30 PM ET, Friday, February 17, 2017

Where: ASU Convocation Center, Jonesboro, Arkansas

Lines: Arkansas State -9

Total: 133.5

College hoops action within the Sun Belt Conference this evening as the Ark- Little Rock Trojans will duke it out with the Arkansas State Red Wolves at ASU Convocation Center in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The Trojans come in having lost their last two games in a row and they are now just 4-9 in league play, while the Red Wolves have also lost their last two games, but they are still at 9-4 within the Sun Belt.  

Little Rock Falls Big At Arlington

Ark- Little Rock has really been struggling of late as they have gone just 1-6 in their last seven games, to fall to 4-9 in league play. The Trojans are off a 71-55 loss at UT Arlington and after topping Appalachian State in their first league road game, they have since lost their last five games away from home in league play and they have been outscored by 9.6 ppg in those games. Not good as they are about to face a very solid Red Wolves team that plays well at home. Their offense has been a struggle for them and it was in the loss to the Mavericks as they shot just 36.7% from the field overall and just 24.0% from long range, plus they committed 17 turnovers as well. On defense they allowed just 31.8% from long range, but they did allow 46.2% shooting in the game overall. Leading their attack in the game was Marcus Johnson Jr.. who had 14 points, while Deondre Burns had 12 points and Maurius Hill had 10 points.  

The Trojans have averaged 66.7 ppg and have allowed 70.5 ppg in league play this year, while in true road games for the year they have averaged 65.7 ppg and have allowed 72.8 ppg. Little Rock enters this game ranked 248th in the nation in scoring, putting up 70.5 ppg, while also ranking 177th in FG% (44.5%), 197th in 3-point shooting (34.8%) and 46th in free throw shooting (74.8%). At the defensive end of the floor they have been very average as they come in ranked 109th in points allowed, giving up 69.3 ppg, while also ranking 240th in defensive FG% (45.0%) and 287th in 3-point defense (37.0%).

Offense Was Lacking In Loss To Texas State

The Arkansas State Red Wolves started league play at 9-2, but they come in having lost their last two games in a row, with both losses coming on the road. At home this year they have been very strong as they have gone 10-0 here and have outscored their opponents on this floor by an average of 12.4 ppg, including outscoring their six league foes at home by an average of 9.8 ppg. The Red Wolves have been an average offensive team this year, but that offense really struggled in their loss to the Bobcats as they scored just 58 points on just 37.3% shooting overall, including just 25.-% from long range. They have been a far better shooting team than that thi9s year and hope that a return home will help them to get their offense back on track. Leading their attack in the game was Donte Thomas, who had 14 points and were their only player to score in double-figures in the game.    

The Red Wolves have averaged 72.7 ppg and have allowed 68.5 ppg in league play this year so far, while here at home for the year they have averaged 78.0 ppg and have allowed 65.6 ppg. Arkansas State checks in at 165th in the nation in scoring, putting up 74.2 ppg, while also ranking 58th in FG% (47.1%), 27th in 3-point shooting (39.3%)  and 332nd in free throw shooting (64.2%). At the defensive end of the floor they have been solid as they come in ranked 86th in points allowed, giving up 68.7 ppg, while also ranking 160th in defensive FG% (43.2%) and 13th in 3-point defense (30.3%).

Trends

Little Rock is:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
  • 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record

Arkansas State is:

  • 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS loss
  • 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games

Little Rocks has really been struggling overall and they have lost their last five conference road games, but the Red Wolves have lost their last two in a row, but both games were on the road and they have gone a perfect 10 at home for the year, including 6-0 at home in league play. The dog has really played well in this series of late, but I don’t see that happening here. The Trojans have been outscored by 9.6 ppg in their last five road games, while the Red Wolves have outscored their last five league foes at home by 11.6 ppg. I look got them to win by at least 12 here.

Pick: Arkansas State -9

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David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.