Hawaii vs. Cal Poly , 02/18/17 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#651 University of Hawaii at Manoa Rainbow Warriors
vs.
#652 California Polytechnic State University Mustangs

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Hawaii vs. Cal Poly

NCAA Basketball:  Saturday, February 18th, 10:00 pm EST

Line:  Cal Poly -4

Total: 137.5

Hawaii heads to Cal Poly to take on the Mustangs on Saturday night in a Big West conference tilt.  Just when it looked like Hawaii had turn the corner by winning four straight conference games, they have now lost two straight to UC Irvine and then to lowly UC Santa Barbara on Thursday night.  It was only the Gauchos second win of the year in the conference and the loss dropped Hawaii to 6-6 in conference and 12-13 overall.

The Mustangs played their best half of the season and maybe their best game overall.  They were up against Northridge who was 7-4 in conference and Cal Poly had a 45-22 lead at halftime on the road.  Pretty impressive.  They held on easily in the second half and won 85-71 to improve to 3-8 in conference.

Hawaii beat Cal Poly last week

These two teams are playing twice in nine days, as Hawaii beat Cal Poly back on February 9th, 74-65.  They built up a nine point halftime lead and coasted in the second half.  Noah Allen led the way with 21 points and nine rebounds, and the win was the fourth straight for Hawaii.  As I said, they have fallen on their face since then and the loss to the Gauchos on Thursday was very poor.

UC Santa Barbara came in at only 1-10 in conference, but a tip in by Alex Hart with only two seconds left gave the Gauchos their second conference win.  The Rainbow Warriors have only themselves to blame, shooting only 36% from the field, and missing 19 of their 25 three point attempts.

The Mustangs play a perfect half

On the road.  A team 4.5 game ahead of you.  No problem.  The Mustangs outscored the Matadors by 23 points, more than doubling them, 45-22 in the first half on Wednesday.  They ended out with an easy 85-71 win, with Donovan Fields leading the way with a career high 23 points on 10 of 16 from the field.  Jakub Nizio and Victor Joseph added 15 points each for the victorious Mustangs.

The win only moved them to 3-8 in conference, but they have been frisky lately.  They beat UC Davis two weeks ago, and beat conference power UC Irvine a week before that.  The Mustangs seem to play their best against better competition.

Trends:

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are:

  • (no trends available)

The Cal Poly Mustangs are:

  • (no trends available)

If this game was played nine days ago, I would have taken Hawaii.  Oh wait, they did play nine days ago and I did correctly take Hawaii.  This time I like Cal Poly.  They have revenge on their mind, yes, but more importantly Hawaii has played terrible since they beat the Mustangs.  I like Cal Poly to even the series for the year.

Pick: Cal Poly

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Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.