Missouri St vs. Drake, 02/18/17 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#637 Missouri State University Bears
vs.
#638 Drake University Bulldogs

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Missouri State vs. Drake

NCAA Basketball:  Saturday, February 18th, 8:00 pm EST

Line:  145.5

The Bears of Missouri State head to Drake to take on the Bulldogs in a matchup of two struggling teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.  Missouri State has lost four in a row, including a tough, tough loss to conference leading Illinois State on Wednesday, 67-66.  They are now 15-13 overall, but only 6-9 in conference.  The Bulldogs are on an even worse streak, having lost six in a row.  They are 5-10 in conference and 7-20 overall.

This is a rematch of a thrilling game back on January 24th.  Drake won by one point in overtime as Reed Timmer put the Bulldogs up for good with 16 seconds left.  These two teams aren’t very good, but we can hope they put another exciting game up like their first contest.

Missouri State just misses on win

Missouri State had every chance to beat Drake back on January 24th, but fell just short.  Both halves and the one overtime were decided by one point, so these teams are obviously very close.  The difference was Bulldog guard Reed Timmer who had 27 points, six rebound, and five assists.  He also shot a very healthy 10 of 18 from the field.

Since the loss, things haven’t got much better for the Bears.  They have lost five of six since and their lone win was a one point win over Loyola (CHI).  They are pretty close to having lost seven in a row.  And yet, I kind of like them on Saturday.

Drake hasn’t won since Missouri State win

I just mentioned that Missouri State has only won one game since the loss to Drake, but the Bulldogs have been even worse.  They have lost all six games since that win, and none of the games have been particularly close.  The closest they have gotten to a win since was a seven point loss to Bradley.  Overall, they have been outscored by 93 in the course of the six game losing streak.

The man who hit the game winning shot against Missouri State has been the lone bright spot.  Reed Timmer is averaging 15.7 points for the Bulldogs and shoots over 80% from the free throw line.  He’s one of only three Bulldogs who average in double digits however.

Trends:

The Missouri State Bears are:

  • 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games

The Drake Bulldogs are:

  • 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
  • 23-50-2 ATS in their last 75 Saturday games.

In a second game between closely matched teams, I tend to take the team who lost the first game.  Missouri State lost a close, last second game and that makes me like them even more.  I don’t care that they are on the road since Drake has no home court advantage to speak of.

Pick: Missouri State

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Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.