Tenn - Chattanooga vs. North Carolina, 11/13/16 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#752 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Tar Heels
vs.
#751 University of Tennessee at Chattanooga Mocs

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports
 

Tennessee-Chattanooga Mocs 1-0 (1-0 ATS) at North Carolina Tar Heels 1-0 (0-1 ATS)

When and Where: Sunday, Nov. 13, Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, N.C.

Spread: North Carolina -17.5

It is the Maui Jim Maui on the Mainland!  Whatever that is . . . Anyways, UT-Chattanooga opened their season beating Tennessee in Knoxville 82-69, showing that the SEC is clearly still just a football conference.  The sixth ranked Tar Heels opened their campaign with a 20-point victory over Tulane in New Orleans.  UNC is 4-0 all-time vs. the Mocs with their last win coming in 1997, 68-38.

Don’t Sleep on the Mocs

In Matt McCall’s first year at the helm, Chattanooga went 29-6, won the Southern Conference regular season championship as well as the SoCon tournament. They were bounced in the First-Round of the NCAA Tournament, but McCall is out to prove last season was no fluke and hopes to take his Moc’s even further in the 2015-16 campaign.

Returners Justin Yuoyo and Tre’ McLean each recorded a double-double in the victory over the Vols. Do not consider this some sort effort from a small team that resulted in a lucky victory.  The Mocs outplayed UT in their own home arena from start to finish, taking a five point lead into the locker rooms before  opening the second half on a 9-2 run and outscoring the Volunteers 48-40 in the second half.  The closest Tennessee would get was 60-54 with six minutes remaining in the contest. Chattanooga held the Vols to just 32.8 percent shooting and 1-of-16 shooting from beyond the arc.  To be fair, Rick Barne’s has eight new players and UT has been picked to finish near the bottom of the conference, but a win over a Major conference opponent, much less one in-state, is nothing to shake a stick at for this Chattanooga program.

Tar Heels Terrorize Tulane

North Carolina opened its 107th season of basketball with a 95-75 road-win over the Green Wave. Prior to that they beat UNC Pembroke 124/63 in their only exhibition. The victory over Tulane improved the Tar Heels all-time record to 95-12 in season openers and they have now won 82 of their last 87 and 11 straight season opening contests.

UNC took a 14-point into the locker rooms at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans and coasted in the second half in the tuneup victory. Justin Jackson scored a career-high 27 points to go along with Joel Berry’s 23, also a career-high. The Green Wave were led by 17-season NBA coach Mike Dunleavy making his collegiate coaching debut.  The ‘Heels shot 49 percent and made nine of their 20 attempts from beyond the arc. Jackson was 4-of-5 from 3-point range. UNC out-rebounded the Green Wave 52-38. Forward Kennedy Meeks was the game’s leading rebounder pulling down 15 boards. Perhaps one issue is the interior as North Carolina shot better from distance (40 percent) than they did from inside the arc (31 percent. After this game then a matchup againt Long Beach State, Carolina heads to Hawaii for the Maui Invitational (not on the mainland).

Trends:

Chattanooga is:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games
  • 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win
  • 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games
  • 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall

North Carolina is:

  • 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
  • 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win

The win over Tennessee is a nice story for Chattanooga, but the Volunteers are not a very good basketball team . . . North Carolina is.  This is the home opener for Roy Williams and his Tar Heels and unlike other schools during football season, the arena will be full regardless.  The Mocs simply cannot trade punches with UNC and the ‘Heels will pull away for a big win in this one.

North Carolina -17.5

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Chuck D

Chuck Dowling is a 30-something University of Florida J-School alum that lives in his mother’s basement. Just kidding... there are no basements in Florida (the ground is too moist). He has been in the “biz” for his entire adult life and specializes in NCAA football and basketball, as well as soccer, boxing, and MMA. When not writing, Chuck moonlights as a high school athletics radio and internet-television broadcaster.