Oklahoma vs. TCU, 10/1/16 - Prediction & Preview

Game Snapshot

#201 University of Oklahoma Sooners
vs.
#202 Texas Christian University Horned Frogs

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports
Oklahoma Sooners (1-2 SU, 0-3-0 ATS, 2-1-0 O/U) vs TCU Horned Frogs (3-1 SU, 1-3-0 ATS, 3-1-0 O/U)

When: 5:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 1, 2016

Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas

Lines: Oklahoma -2

Total: 69.5

A huge clash in the Big 12 this evening as the Oklahoma Sooners will go to war with the TCU Horned Frogsat Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. The 1-2 Sooners are not off to the start they were expecting and come into this game off a 45-24 home loss to Ohio State, while the 3-1 Horned Frogs are off a 33-3 win over SMU. Oklahoma won last year’s meeting 30-29 and they lead the all-time series 10-5.

Sooners Crushed At Home By Buckeyes

The Oklahoma Sooners were thought of as being a National Title contender, but it just hasn’t played out that way thus far. It started with a 33-23 loss to Houston to start the year and now they have been knocked out of the National Title picture with their 45-24 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes two weeks ago. It really seems that the Big 12 as a whole is down and will be shutout of the playoff picture. The defense really looks to be the culprit so far that they have allowed 401 ypg, which is 79th in the nation and 31.7 ppg, which is 93. If this team had questions coming into the year, they were on the defensive side of the ball and it has played out that way. In the loss to the Buckeyes they allowed 443 yards, including 291 yards on the ground and must now far a very strong TCU offense.

The Sooners better hope that they figured out their defensive woes during the week off. On offense, the Sooners have not been as good as expected, they put up 59 points in their win over UL Monroe, but just 23.5 ppg in their two games vs top 20 teams. It may be easier to get their offense going in this one vs a subpar TCU defense. In the loss to Ohio State, they did total 404 yards of total offense, including a solid 178 yards on the ground, but still with their defense they will need better production from that offense in this one.Baker Mayfield has been decent so far as he has thrown for 793 yards with seven TDs and just two INTs, while leading their ground attack has been Joe Mixon, who has run for 235 yards at 8.1 ypc.

TCU’s Offense Just As Good As Ever

Over the last few year, the TCU offense has been nearly unstoppable at times and this year’s edition looks just as good. Last year the Horned Frogs put up 42.1 ppg and 563 ypg, while in 2014 they put up 46.5 ppg and 533 ypg. Well so far this year they have averaged a healthy 576 ypg, which is 4th in the nation and 42.8 ppg, which is 18th. The passing game has really been what has led this team this year as they are 6th in the nation in passing at 380 ypg. QB Kenny Hill is a Texas A&M transfer and he has had a heck of a start for the Horned Frogs so far as he has thrown for 1487 yards with six TDs, while also rushing for 166 yards and six more TDs. He does have four INTs, but still they haven’t hurt the team yet. Hill did play well when he was in there for Texas A&M, but eventually lost his job and that has been TCU’s gain. He has looked like the best QB in the Big 12 so far.

On defense, the Frogs allowed 27.2 ppg and 398 ypg last year and with eight starters back on that side of the ball they were expected to look much more like the 2014 team that allowed just 19.0 ppg and 342 ypg. Well so far it hasn’t happened that way as they are 62nd in the nation in total defense, allowing 384 ypg and 65th in points allowed, giving up 26.2 ppg. The are missing starting LB Montrel Wilson, who was 5th on the team in Tackles last year and starting CB Jeff Gladney is day-to-day, but still this is a deep defense that should be playing better than it has been, especially vs the offenses that they have been facing. Their biggest weakness has been their pass defense, which is 88th in the land, allowing 252.4 ypg so far.

Trends

Oklahoma is:

  • 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • The favorite is 2-6 the last eight games in this series

TCU is:

  • 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in October
  • 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games

The Sooners can still win the Big 12, but not unless they fix that defense. They have been outscored by 10 points and 21 points vs the two top 25 teams they have faced this year so far and will take on an offense that is even better than that of Houston and Ohio State. This game may not be pretty for the Sooners defense. On offense, Oklahoma has not looked good vs the two top 25 teams they have faced so far and while TCU doesn’t have a great defense they should be able to come up with an extra stop or two that will allow them to win the game. Go Frogs.

Pick: TCU +2

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David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.