San Jose St vs. New Mexico, 10/1/16 - Preview & Prediction

Game Snapshot

#212 University of New Mexico Lobos
vs.
#211 San Jose State University Spartans

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

San Jose State Spartans (1-3; 0-3 ATS; 2-1 O/U) vs. New Mexico Lobos (1-2; 1-2 ATS; 3-0 O/U)

NCAAF: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 4:00pm EST

Line: New Mexico -6.5

Total: 55

The New Mexico Lobos will host the San Jose State Spartans in an MWC matchup Saturday afternoon in Albuquerque, NM. San Jose State were overmatched by a 44-10 score to Iowa State on the road last week, and New Mexico was off last week, and were defeated by Rutgers by a 37-28 score in week three. San Jose State defeated New Mexico 31-21 at home last season.

San Jose State Overmatched by Iowa State

The San Jose State Spartans were completely overmatched and fell to a much stronger Iowa State team last week. The Spartans are going with freshman QB Jose Love because the teams’s starting QB Kenny Potter is out with a leg injury. Love struggled big time last week, connecting on just 13 of 27 passes for 155 yards and he through four interceptions with one touchdown. The Spartans were forced to  run the ball to have success and they were efficient,  rushing for a team total of 177 yards. Zamore Zigler lead the way, rushing for 104 yards after rushing for 111 yards in week two. Ziegler has potential and will be one to watch in this one. The Kenny Potter injury has had a negative ripple effect on the entire offense, however Potter is expected to play in this one. San Jose State is scoring an average of 25.8 points per game, placing them 89th in the Nation.

The San Jose State defense simply had no answer for Iowa State, who rushed for 187 yards on the ground and tallied 316 yards in the air. The Spartans are now allowing an average of 39.5 points per game through four games, ranking them way down at 116th overall.

Lobos Blow Huge Lead to Rutgers

The New Mexico Lobos led a 21 point lead slip away in their most recent game two weeks ago and fell to 1-2 on the season. The Lobos scored 21 points in the first quarter but did not score again until the fourth quarter, but by then it was to late for a comeback. New Mexico is going with a tandem at quarterback this year with Austin Apodaca, who threw for 85 yards with one TD and one INT in week three, and Lamar Jordan, who threw for 84 yards with no touchdowns. Apodaca has seen more action and has thrown for a total of 372 yards with just three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Lobos feature a strong running game which was evident in this one, rushing for a team total of 293 yards with Lamar Jordan leading the way with 101 yards off 14 carries. Overall New Mexico’s offense has been productive and they are now averaging 35.7 points per game, ranking them 47th in the Nation.

The New Mexico defense let their team down in the loss to Rutgers, allowing Rutgers running back Robert Martin to rush for 169 yards, and could not come up with big stops when needed. They are now conceding an average of 30 points per game, ranking them 87th overall.

Trends:

The San Jose State Spartans are:

  • 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.
  • 5-17 ATS last 23 following a bye week.

The New Mexico Lobos are:

  • 4-1 ATS last 5 home games.
  • 9-3 ATS last 12 following a SU loss.

I am going with New Mexico in this one. San Jose State’s defense is awful, ranked near the bottom in the entire country, and they will be up against a strong offense in the Lobos. New Mexico was able to rush for 293 yards on the ground last week against Rutgers, so they should dominate on the ground in this one against a very weak rush defense that is allowing an average of 223 yards on the ground per game. San Jose has allowed 34 or more points in all four games, so a strong offense in New Mexico should light up the scoreboard with ease in this one.

Prediction: New Mexico -6.5

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.