Tulane vs. UMass, 10/1/16 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#118 University of Massachusetts Amherst Minutemen
vs.
#117 Tulane University Green Wave

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports
Tulane Green Wave vs. Massachusetts Minutemen at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst,Massachusetts

Saturday, October 1st, 2016 at 3:30 p.m. EST

Point Spread: Tulane Green Wave -2

Over/Under: 42.5

The Tulane Green Wave will head up North to Massachusetts for a date with the UMass Minutemen. TheGreen Wave managed to pick up a thrilling 41-39 win over the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns last week. Meanwhile, the Minutemen suffered a 47-35 loss at the hands of the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Will UMassfind a way to bounce back at home against Tulane on Saturday?

Tulane beats UL-Lafayette in 4OT

The Green Wave were involved in one of last week’s most exciting games, beating the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns 41-39 after four overtime periods. Quarterback Glen Cuiellette was outstanding under center for Tulane. He threw for 165 yards and four touchdowns in the thrilling victory. Cuiellette had some impressive chemistry with sophomore receiver Terren Encalade. Encalade caught seven balls for 103 yards and three touchdowns, including the game winning score. Tulane somehow won this game despite going an incredible 0-for-16 on third downs and recording just four first downs.  But they also forced four turnovers, which proved to be the difference. The Green Wave will look to carry over their momentum for their third win of the season against UMass.

UMass able to hang with Mississippi State, but can’t finish

The UMass Minutemen actually had a 21-20 lead about halfway through the third quarter against Mississippi State. A win over an SEC team for a squad that dropped to an FBS Independent would have been an incredible achievement. However, the Minutemen were unable to hang on to the lead against Mississippi State’s superior talent, eventually losing 47-35. Sophomore quarterback Andrew Ford threw for 273 yards and four touchdowns in the loss. Ford had some trouble taking care of the ball. He threw three interceptions on the day. Ultimately, the UMass defense wore down against a physical Bulldogs’ front as they surrendered 299 rushing yards and 598 overall. The Minutemen need their quarterback to protect the rock against

Trends

The Tulane Green Wave are:

  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
  • 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in October.
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

The UMass Minutemen are:

  • 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
  • 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
  • 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.

Tulane is going to bring a ton of momentum into this game, and I think they’ll be able to put up points against a porous UMass defense. The Minutemen have been allowing over 27 points per game this season. The Minutemen‘s offense has also struggled. They’ve turned the ball over seven times in their last three games. I expect Adam Ford to gift the Green Wave defense with a few turnovers in this one. I like Tulane to beat UMass by a field goal or more.

Pick: Tulane Green Wave -2

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Jake Domonkos

When he's not watching sports or making picks, Jake enjoys playing pick-up basketball, rec-league softball, ping pong, and drinking good beer. Jake closely follows all four major sports and uses the latest trends and up-to-date statistical analysis to make his picks.