UL Monroe vs. Auburn, 10/1/16 - Preview & Prediction

Game Snapshot

#168 Auburn University Tigers
vs.
#167 University of Louisiana at Monroe Warhawks

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks vs. Auburn Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama

Saturday, October 1st, 2016 at 3:30 p.m. EST

Point Spread: Auburn Tigers -33.5

Over/Under: 55.5

The Auburn Tigers are coming off a momentous victory over the LSU Tigers, and they’re looking to pick up their third win of the season as they take on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks. The Warhawks had a week off coming into this matchup. Will the extra week of preparation give Louisiana Monroe a chance against the Auburn Tigers?

Sloppy play dooms UL-Monroe against Georgia Southern

The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks had far too many mistakes against the Georgia Southern Eagles in their 23-21 loss on September 17th on the road as a 27-point underdog. The Warhawks turned the ball over twice, and a blocked field goal sealed their fate in the waning seconds of the game. Louisiana Monroe was led by quarterback Garrett Smith in the tight loss. Smith had 283 passing yards to go with two passing touchdowns. He also led Louisiana Monroe in rushing, though that’s not saying much considering he racked up just 22 yards and a touchdown against Georgia Southern’s defense. The Warhawks had this past week off, and I’m sure they’ve spent a lot of time planning and scheming against a tough Tigers team.

Auburn shocks Les Miles and LSU

Auburn‘s schedule has been brutal early on this season. They’ve faced off with three ranked opponents in their first four games. The Tigers were able to pick up their first win over a ranked opponent in Saturday’s controversial 18-13 victory over LSU. It turned out to be a big win for Auburn‘s Gus Malzahn and the last loss for LSU’s Les Miles. It’s hard to win games without scoring touchdowns, but Auburn managed to do just that. Daniel Carlson hit six field goals, scoring all 18 of the Tigers‘ points. Kerryon Johnson did a great job of moving the chains. He led the Tigers in both rushing (93) and receiving yards (4 for 68yds). QB Sean White completed 19 of 26 for 234 yards with no TDs and no picks.. Auburn will lean on Johnson once again in this contest against the Warhawks.

Trends

The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks are:

  • 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
  • 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
  • 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

 

The Auburn Tigers are:

  • 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games.
  • 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
  • 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

There’s no doubt that the Tigers are going to win this game, but I don’t think they’ll be able to cover this spread. Auburn has played a really tough schedule, and they could come out a little flat against an inferior opponent. The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks had a bye week coming into this game, so they should be very well prepared. They’ve also covered all three games. The Auburn Tigers win this one by four scores, but I’m taking the points.

Pick: Louisiana Monroe Warhawks +33.5

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Jake Domonkos

When he's not watching sports or making picks, Jake enjoys playing pick-up basketball, rec-league softball, ping pong, and drinking good beer. Jake closely follows all four major sports and uses the latest trends and up-to-date statistical analysis to make his picks.