49ers vs. Bills, 10/16/16 - Prediction

Game Snapshot

#262 Buffalo Bills
vs.
#261 San Francisco 49ers

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports
San Francisco 49ers (1-4; 1-4 ATS: 3-2 O/U) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-2; 3-2 ATS; 3-2 O/U)

NFL: Sunday, October 16, 2016 at 1:00pm EST

Line: Buffalo -7.5

Total: 44

The Buffalo Bills will aim for their fourth straight win as they host the San Francisco 49ers in week six action Sunday afternoon from New Era Field. The 49ers struggled in a 33-21 loss to the Cardinals last week, and the Bills came away with an impressive 30-19 win over the Rams.

49ers Lose Fourth Straight Game as Defense Continues to Struggle

The San Francisco defense could not contain David Johnson last week as the Arizona Cardinals handed the 49ers their fourth straight loss. Blaine Gabbert struggled again this week, connecting on 18 of 31 passes for 162 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. The crowd at Levi’s Stadium grew restless, and were even chanting for Colin Kaepernick to be put into the game. Gabbert has put up terrible numbers, throwing for only 895 yards with a weak 5:6 TD to INT ratio. The 49ers must be considering replacing Gabbert with Kaepernick or even Christian Ponder at this point, as it can’t get much worse than Gabbert’s weak performance. Carlos Hyde rushed for 78 yards last week, and the 49ers are still waiting for him to breakout as they need him to be effective to remedy their weak passing game. The third-year running back has only rushed for 100 yards once through five games, and has rushed for a total of 377 yards this season. San Francisco is now averaging 22.2 points per game, ranking them 18th in the NFL.

The San Francisco defense rush defense was terrible again in this one, allowing a total of 172 rushing yards. The 49ers are playing without top defensive player NaVorro Bowman which really hurts their already weak defense. The 49ers are now allowing an average of 28 points per game, ranking them 26th in the NFL.

McCoy Leads Bills to Third Consecutive Victory

The Buffalo Bills were able to produce on offense against the Rams defense and came away with their third straight win after defeating the L.A. 30-19 on the road last week. Tyrod Taylor only completed 12 passes for 124 yards, but he did toss two touchdowns with zero interceptions. Overall Taylor is not having a productive season, throwing for only 891 yards with only six touchdowns, however he has limited his turnovers, throwing only two interceptions. The big story for the Bills in the win was the performance of LeSean McCoy who had a monster game, rushing for 150 yards off 18 carries, which was a season high. The 28-year old running back has rushed for over 100 yards in two of five games, and has now totalled 447 yards with three touchdowns through five games. The Bills offense has been solid after a slow week one, and are now averaging 23.4 points per game, ranking them 15th in the NFL.

The Bills defense has been their strength this season, and that was evident in last week’s win over the Rams. The Bills held the dangerous Gurley to 72 yards off 23 carries, and made things difficult for Case Keenum, sacking him four times. Lorenzo Alexander was a monster, making three sacks, and the veteran linebacker now leads the NFL with seven sacks on the season. The Bills defense has been outstanding, conceding an average of only 17.4 points per game, good for fifth in the NFL.

Trends:

The San Francisco 49ers are:

  • 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
  • 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

The Buffalo Bills are:

  • 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
  • 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.

I really like the Bills in this matchup. The 49ers are getting no production at quarterback and Hyde has been average on the ground, so I expect the Bills solid defense to shut the 49ers down. Also LeSean McCoy has been outstanding, and the Bills are now averaging 137 rushing yards per game which is trouble for the 49ers who are surrendering an NFL worst 147 rushing yards per game, so I expect McCoy to have a huge game. The Bowman injury really hurts the San Francisco defense, and I expect the Bills to take this one in a blowout.

Prediction: Buffalo -7.5

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.