Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 9-17-2017 - Prediction & Preview

Game Snapshot

#272 Kansas City Chiefs
vs.
#271 Philadelphia Eagles

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0; 1-0 ATS: 0-1 O/U) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 1-0 O/U)

NFL Sunday, September 17, 2017 at 1:00pm EST

Line: Kansas City -4.5

Total: 47.5

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Philadelphia Eagles in a week two battle Sunday afternoon from Arrowhead Stadium. The Eagles are coming off a solid 30-17 road win over the Redskins, and the Chiefs notched a huge 42-27 road win over the Patriots last Thursday night. The Chiefs defeated the Eagles 26-16 in the previous meeting in the 2013 season.

Wentz Shines in Eagles Win

The Philadelphia Eagles played strong defense in their convincing 30-17 road win over the Washington Redskins last Sunday. Carson Wentz was outstanding, converting on 26 of his 39 passes for 307 yards with two touchdowns against one interception. The 24-year old quarterback showed signs of big potential in his 2016 season, collecting 3782 passing yards with a 16:14 TD to INT ratio. LeGarrette Blount was mediocre in his first regular season game with the Eagles, rushing for 46 yards on 14 carries. The 30-year old running back had a breakout 2016 season with the Patriots last season, rushing for 1161 yards. Zack Ertz came up huge last week, making eight grabs for 93 yards on eight targets. The 26-year old tight end recorded 816 receiving yards last season and can be considered the Eagles biggest threat of all receivers. Newcomer Alshon Jeffrey made three catches for 38 yards in his Eagles debut.

The Eagles defense put on a very promising performance in the win last week, holding Cousins to 240 yards and limited the Redskins running game to 64 yards. Brandon Graham made his presence felt, making two sacks. The 29-year old defensive end made 5.5 sacks last season. Cornerback Ronald Darby was injured with an ankle injury in the win and he will be out for a while. The Eagles defense passed their first test with flying colors but will be facing another tough task on the road in this one.

Chiefs Dazzle in Shocking Win Over Patriots

The Kansas City Chiefs scored 21 points in the fourth quarter in their shocking 42-27 road win over the defending Super Bowl Champs. Alex Smith was phenomenal, connecting on 28 of his 35 passes for 368 yards and four touchdowns. The 33-year old quarterback posted a 15:8 TD to INT ratio last season. Kareem Hunt also put on a show, accumulating 148 rushing yards on his 17 carries and also made five grabs for 98 yards and scored three touchdowns. The 22-year old running back was a third round pick in this year’s draft and it will be interesting to see how he fares in his second performance in the spotlight. Tyreek Hill had a big night,  bringing in seven grabs for 133 yards and one touchdown. The 23-year old wide receiver collected 593 receiving yards last season, and could be poised for a big year in his second NFL season. The Chiefs could be in for a big year if Hunt and Hill both have a breakout season.

The Kansas City defense did the unexpected and did not allow Tom Brady to throw a touchdown last week. They made three sacks along with 6.5 tackles for a loss, and limited the Pats to a 3 for 6 mark in the red zone. The only negative last week was the injury to their top safety Eric Berry who is out for the season with a torn Achilles.

Trends:

The Philadelphia Eagles are:

  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Chiefs.
  • 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.

The Kansas City Chiefs are:

  • 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in week two.
  • 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

I am taking the points with the Eagles in this contest. I know the Chiefs scored big points in New England but I don’t expect that to repeat, Smith is not going to throw four touchdowns every game and Hunt won’t rush for 148 yards. The Eagles have a solid defense that did a great job defending the run last week, allowing only 64 rushing yards, so I am confident they can slow down the rookie Kareem Hunt. Furthermore, the Chiefs had big trouble stopping the run last year so I am confident Blount can move the ball on the ground, and Wentz was very sharp last week as well. Lastly, the Chiefs are without Eric Berry who is one of the best safeties in the game, so I expect the Eagles to exploit that.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5

The Eagles were able to score 30 points on the road last week, and I expect them to have another productive afternoon on the road. Wentz has more experience under his belt now and he is poised for a big season and he should have another strong game, plus the over is 11-2 in the Eagles last 13 road games. The Chiefs should have another big offensive game, they won’t score 42 points again, but the Eagles defense does have some holes, and the over is 4-1 in the Chiefs last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Pick: Over 47.5

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.