Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators, 05/15/17 - Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot

#7 Ottawa Senators
vs.
#8 Pittsburgh Penguins

Monday, May 5 2017, at 8:00pm EDT

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Ottawa Senators (Sens Lead 1-0) vs Pittsburgh Penguins

When: 8.00 PM ET, Monday, May 15, 2017

Where: PPG PAINTS Arena in Pittsburgh, PA

Lines: Pittsburgh -190/ Ottawa +171

Total: 5

The Eastern Conference Finals continue this evening as the Ottawa Senators duke it out with the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG PAINTS Arena in Pittsburgh, PA in game two of their best-of-seven series. The Senators took game one of this series by a score of 2-1 in OT. Despite the win, the Senators are still just 2-9 in their last 11 games played here in Pittsburgh.

Senators Steal Game One In OT

The Pittsburgh Penguins are pretty heavy favorites to win this series and they were big favorites in game one, but that didn’t deter the Senators at all as they stole game one in OT and now have taken home ice edge in this series. The Sens were a solid road team during the regular season, going 22-19 and that has carried over to the postseason as they are now 5-2 away from home in the playoffs this year so far. The Senators have also been very good in OT, going 6-1 in the postseason in such games so far. Scoring for the Senators in the game one win was Jean-Gabriel Pageau, which was his 8th of the postseason and his 20th of the year and Bobby Ryan, which was his 5th of the postseason and his 18th of the year.

Grabbing the win in game one was Craig Anderson and he has gone 9-4 with a 2.37 GAA and a .917 save percentage in the playoffs this year, while in the postseason in his career he is now 21-18 with a 2.35 GAA and a .928 save percentage. During the postseason so far, the Senators rank 6th in scoring at 2.77 gpg, while also ranking 9th in shots taken (31.7 spg) and 13th in power play conversions, converting on 13.9% of their chances. At the defensive end of the ice they are ranked 9th among playoff teams in goals allowed, giving up 2.62 gpg, while also ranking 10th in shots allowed (31.4 spg) and 5th in penalty kill, allowing teams to convert on 11.1% of their chances.

Offense Struggles In Game One

The Pittsburgh Penguins were the top offensive team during the regular season and they have been the top offensive team during the postseason, but that offense just didn’t show up in game one of this series as all they score was one goal on 28 shot attempts. At home, during the regular season they averaged 3.67 gpg, while in postseason play at home they averaged 2.86 gpg, but they have now scored two goals or less in three of their last four at home. They need to get their offense back on track or they could be in for a shocking exit. Scoring the lone goal for Pittsburgh was Evgeni Malkin, which was his 6th of the postseason and his 39th of the year. The Penguins have been a strong home team this year and despite the loss in game one are still 35-13 here at PPG PAINTS Arena on the year.

Marc-Andre Fleury took the loss in game one of this series and he has now gone 8-5 with a 2.49 GAA and a .928 save percentage in the postseason this year, while in the playoffs in his career he is now 61-50 with a 2.64 GAA and a .909 save percentage. During the postseason so far the Penguins rank 1st in the league in scoring at 3.23 gpg, while also ranking 14th in shots taken (27.7 spg) and 6th in power play conversions, converting on 19.0% of their chances. At the defensive end of the ice they rank 8th in the playoffs in goals allowed, giving up 2.54 gpg, while also ranking 16th in shots allowed (35.2 spg) and 10th in penalty kill, allowing teams to convert on 18.9% of their chances.

Trends

Ottawa is:

  • The Over is 17-4 in their last 21 Monday games
  • The Over is 3-0-3 in their last six after scoring two goals or less in their previous game

Pittsburgh is:

  • The Over is 7-1 in their last eight Monday games
  • The Over is 43-19-7 in their last 69 when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been having their issues on offense of late and have lost three of their last four games here at home. That offense is key to them getting back on track and now that they have had a game to adjust to the Sens defense, they should get their offense going in this one some. The Sens have been a solid offensive team in the postseason and Marc-Andre Fleury has a 2.49 GAA in postseason play so far, so he can be scored on. I look for this one to go Over the Total.

Pick: Over 5

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David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.