2020 PGA Championship Predictions, Preview & Odds

The PGA tour moves on to the first Major of the season, The PGA Championship, which has been won the last two years in a row by Brooks Koepka. Normally, this is the last Major on the schedule, but in the age of COVID-19, it will be the first. Remember, the Masters isn’t going to be played until November. Can Koepka win it again? Can Tiger Woods notch his 16th career Major Title? How will Justin Thomas fare as the new #1 golfer in the world? If you want answers, you’ll have to keep reading.

The PGA Championship will take place at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, California. It as a par 70 course that measures 7,234 yards in length. In the last few tournaments, when have seen water come into play a lot, but there is only water on one hole here at TPC Harding Park. There are a lot of straight holes but we also note that the fairways are very narrow and that means precision off the tee is a must. If you miss the fairways, you will deal with some very nasty rough.

2020 PGA Championship Odds (Courtesy of Ceasars Palace)

Brooks Koepka +1000 (bet $100 to win $1,000)

Justin Thomas +1200

Rory McIlroy +1400

Jon Rahm +1500

Bryson DeChambeau +1700

Xander Schauffele +1700

Patrick Cantlay +2200

Dustin Johnson +2200

Tiger Woods +3000

Webb Simpson +3000

Collin Morikawa +3300

Tony Finau +3500

Jason Day +3500

Daniel Berger +4000

Tyrrell Hatton +4000

Hideki Matsuyama +4000

Gary Woodland +4000

Players To Watch

As always, we will take a look at a few players that I don’t have on my list to win it all but could have a good showing or used in a prop. They could also be players I am looking to stay away from.

The first one to look at is Tiger Woods. I do not expect him to win this tournament but it would be nice if he did. Woods has 15 Majors in his career and that puts him three behind Jack Nicholas, who has 18. Tiger is also tied with Sam Snead for first in career tour wins at 82. A win here would give him the all-time record in that respect. Tiger last played on this course back in 2009 and he led the U.S. to the President’s Cup that year, winning all five of his matches. Woods didn’t have a great showing at the Memorial, which was his 1st tournament since the restart. He finished 40th at that event. He could finish in the top 25, but really no better than 20th.

Rory McIlroy continues to be near the top of the odds list and I will continue to not put him as a part of my three winners. McIlroy was playing incredible golf before the break as he finished in the Top 5 in all six tournaments but in his five starts after the break, he has finished 32nd or worse. He did finish 11th at the Travelers Championship but still, Rory has not been sharp since the restart. He did win the WGC-Match Play Championship back in 2015, which was his only tournament played on this court.

Dustin Johnson won the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago but after that, he missed the cut, withdrew, and finished 12 last week. The 12th place finish last week could have the #5 golfer in the world, building some momentum for this week. DJ is 86th in driving accuracy and 54th in tee-to-green but he is also 169th in approach to the green, 97th in greens in regulation and 139th in putting. A mixed bag of stats there. Johnson could have a top 15 finish here but I don’t see him finishing in the top 10. Still, I may use him in a prop later on.

I had Justin Thomas as one of my three winners last week and he won it all, giving me my 2nd tournament winner since the restart. Thomas is the new #1 golfer in the world and he now has 3 tour wins on the year. He has been very consistent this year but he is 131st in driving accuracy and he ranks 155th in proximity from the rough. This rough is expected to be nasty and that could hamper his efforts this week. We also note that Thomas has never played on the course and that could work against him some as well. Having said all that, while I do not expect him to win the PGA Championship, I would not be surprised by a Top 10 finish. He has had nine of them in 14 events this year.

Brooks Koepka has won this event the last two years in a row but none of them were played on this course. He has played on this course (2015) and finished in 17th place at the WGC Match play. Koepka surprised many with his 2nd play finish last week in the FedEx St Jude Invitational but we note that missed the cut, finished 62nd, and missed the cut in his three previous events. I do not see him playing as well as he did a week ago. Brooks also does not have good numbers for this course as he is 185th in driving accuracy, 140th in greens in regulation, 104th around the green, and 146th in putting. I will look for Koepka to slip just a bit this week but not by a ton as he still has the momentum from last week. Maybe a top 10 finish.

My Three Winners

Now, let’s get down to try and make some money. I had a decent week last week as Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger were a part of my three winners and they finished one and two in the tournament, respectively. I also had Berger at +550 to finish in the top five and Abraham Ancer to finish better than Sergio Garcia. Let’s see if we can point you towards some more winners this week.

Jon Rahm (+1500) held on to the #1 ranking in the world for a short time before handing it over to Justin Thomas last week. Rahm took over the top spot with a win at the Memorial three weeks ago but last week he came crashing down with a tied for 52nd at the WGC: FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Prior to his win, he had finished 27th or worse in four straight events. Still, Rahm has some very good numbers, including 52nd in driving accuracy, 8th in tee-to-green, 6th off the tee, 28th in greens in regulation, 35th in driving distance, and 26th in putting. I will pencil him in as one of my three winners as I expect Rahm to bounce back from his bad showing last week.

I have used Bryson DeChambeau (+1700) a few times in my winner’s section and I did win with him at the Rocket Mortgage a month ago. He has had a couple of hiccups since then with a missed cut and a 30th place finish but prior to that, he was the hottest player on the planet with seven top-eight finishes or better in a row. Bryson is just 112th in driving accuracy and that could be a bit concerning but he is 1st in driving distance, 13th in greens in regulation, 9th in tee-to-green, and 6th in putting. We also note that he is 1st on tour in scoring average. I will look for DeChambeau to get back on track with a very good week here at the PGA Championship.

Webb Simpson (+3000) did miss the cut a few weeks ago at the Memorial but he has finished 12th or better in his other three tournaments over a four-start stretch. He has two wins on tour this year and has six Top 10s in ten events so far. Simpson has been very consistent this year and he also has some very nice numbers that set him up well on this course. Webb is 19th on tour in driving accuracy, which is huge for this course. He is also 14th in greens in regulation, 7th in approach to the green, 12th in tee-to-green, and 19th in putting. Everything sets up well for Simpson to have a very good showing here at TPC Harding Park.

Props (Odds are courtesy of Betonline.ag)

Tournament Matchup - Daniel Berger -120 over Rickie Fowler

Tournament Matchup - Webb Simpson +113 over Xander Schauffele

Tournament Matchup - Patrick Cantlay -125 over Collin Morikawa

Top 5 Finish - Webb Simpson +550

Top 10 Finish - Brooks Koepka +120

Top 20 Finish - Viktor Hovland +175

Some Info Gleaned From PGATour.com