2020 3M Open Preview, Predictions, & Odds
We move onto the next tournament in the revised PGA Tour schedule and that is the 3M Open, while will take place at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This is a par-71, 7114-yard course that requires precision off the tee on many of the holes. There are just three par-fives on the course but one of them is the dramatic 18th, which has a ton of water around it. That could make for a dramatic finish to this tournament. In all, 11 holes will have water come into play on this course.
Last week, at the Memorial, it was Jon Rahm that came away with the victory. It was the first of the year for him and the 4th of his career. He will not be in this tournament but we still have some big names, including Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey, Bubba Watson, and Dustin Johnson, along with Matthew Wolff, who is the defending champion. Actually, last year was the first one for this event. Who will win this year’s event? Well, let’s dive in and see.
2020 3M Open odds (via William Hill)
Dustin Johnson 10-1
Brooks Koepka 12-1
Tommy Fleetwood 14-1
Tony Finau 14-1
Paul Casey 25-1
Matthew Wolff 28-1
Bubba Watson 33-1
Russell Henley 33-1
Lucas Glover 35-1
Harris English 35-1
Erik van Rooyen 40-1
Brendon Todd 45-1
Sam Burns 50-1
Doc Redman 50-1
Sepp Straka 50-1
Luke List 50-1
Brian Harman 55-1
Henrik Norlander 55-1
Patrick Rodgers 55-1
Ryan Moore 60-1
Si-Woo Kim 66-1
Chris Kirk 66-1
Players To Watch
As always, I will first take a look at some players to watch in this tournament. These are guys that I think will come up short of winning it, but they still should have a good showing and could be used in some props.
Brooks Koepka is the pick to win it all that I have seen a few times around the internet and While I expect him to have a good tournament, I do not think he can win it. Koepka is 6th in the world rankings but just 154th in the FedEx Standings. He has not had a great year with just one Top 10 in nine events and that was a 7th place finish at the RBC Heritage five weeks ago. In his last two times out, he has missed the cut and finished 62nd last week at the Memorial. Koepka is just 179th in greens in regulation and 192nd in driving accuracy, plus he finished 65th here a year ago. I may go against Brooks in a prop and I am surprised that he is 2nd on the odds list for this tournament as the numbers don’t say that he should be that high.
Matthew Wolff won this event last year but it is very hard to win a tournament two years in a row. He did have a decent showing at the memorial last week with a 22nd finish and he finished 2nd at the RBC Heritage five weeks ago but still, Wolff has just one Top 10 finish in 16 events this year and he is ranked 55th in the golf world rankings. He is also 144th in driving accuracy and 164th in greens in regulation. Matthew did play well last week and he could be a factor on Sunday but he will come up just a bit short.
Tommy Fleetwood is an interesting player to watch as this will be his first event played since the restart. I know that he is 3rd on the odds list but I would need to see more of him this year to consider him as one of my three winners. Still, he is fresh and could have a good showing. Tommy has one Top 10 in six events this year and that was a 3rd place finish at the Honda Classic in March. Overall, in the last 12 months, he has had a win, three seconds, a third, a T4, and a T5 worldwide. Do not sleep on Tommy this week.
Bubba Watson is one of the bigger names in this tournament but he is not having such a great year. He has just three Top 10 finishes in 15 events, which includes one top three. Bubba has missed the cut in three of his last four events and he finished 32nd at the Memorial a week ago. This is also a new course for him as he has not played on it in his career. He is 61st on tour in tee-to-green, 13th off the tee, and 49th in putting. Will those numbers be enough for him to make the cut this week? We shall see.
Let’s take a look at one more. Paul Casey could have a decent showing this week, despite the fact that he has no Top 10 finishes in nine events this year. He has just two starts since the restart and finished 32nd at Travelers Championship while missing the cut last week at the Memorial. Having said all that, he does have some nice numbers, which could set him up for a good showing. Casey is 12th off the green, 15th in tee-to-green, 9th approach to the green, 49th in driving accuracy, and 12th in greens in regulation. Despite not playing well this year overall, Paul could have a surprise showing this week.
My Three Winners
Now let’s get to three players, who I will have money on to win this event. The first one is Tony Finau at 14/1. I have been a fan of his for a few years now and I am looking for him to have a very good showing in this tournament. He has just four Top 10s in 14 events this year but is off his best showing science the restart with an 8th place finish at the memorial. He struggled with the driver in the 3rd round and he wasn’t able to recover. Finau is just 182nd in driving accuracy but the rest of his numbers are very solid. He is 47th in greens in regulation, 39th off the tee, 28th in approach to the green, 11th in tee-to-green, and 19th around the green. As long as Finau gets his driver back on track Tony Finau will make my list of three that I will have faith in this week.
Next is Dustin Johnson (10/1), who is the favorite to win the tournament. He is 4th in the world golf rankings and has three top 10s in eight events this year. That includes a win at the Travelers Championship nearly a month ago. He did miss the cut last week but I will look for him to bounce back here. Johnson is 72nd in Driving Accuracy, 14th off the tee, 67th in approach to the green, 45th in tee-to-green, and 13th in sand save percentage. He is also 16th on tour when putting for birdies-or-better. Johnson shot a pair of 80s last week at the Memorial and you can bet that he is looking to have a bounce-back showing in this one.
Lastly is Harris English at 35/1. Above, I showed that Tommy Fleetwood is making his first start since the restart began and I would like to see more before considering him as a winner in this event. Last week was Harris’ first event in a month and all he did was finish 13th. English has been one of the more consistent players on tour this year with five top 10s and nine top 20s in 14 events so far, plus he has some very good stats, which are suitable for this course. He comes in ranked 26th off the tee, 75th in driving accuracy, 7th in greens in regulation, 37th in approach to the green, 28th in putting, and 18th in tee-to-green. I like those rankings, especially on a course like this one and that puts him in the running to walk away with the title in the 2nd ever 3M Open.
Props
Tournament Matchup - Harris English -125 over Lucas Glover (Betonline.ag)
Tournament Matchup - Dustin Johnson -1.5 (+105) strokes over Brooks Koepka (Betonline.ag)
Top 5 Finish - Harris English +600 (Betonline.ag)
Top 10 Finish - Paul Casey +225 (MyBookie.com)
Bubba Watson To Miss The Cut (+165) (MyBookie.com)