2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Preview, Predictions & Odds

The next event on the PGA Tour is the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, which will take place at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. The 2nd year in a row that TPC Southwind will host WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational. TPC Southwind is 40 yards deeper this year and it has the addition of two new tee boxes. New bunker positioning and re-shaping will make the pros think twice as they must deal with 76 sand bunkers, 11 water penalty areas, and 2.5 inches of Bermuda rough. This course is is more about the 2nd shot than a ton of accuracy off the tee.

Betting Odds Courtesy Of Betonline.ag

Players To Watch

As always, I will first take a look at a few golfers who I don’t feel will win the tournament but who could be used in some props later on. There are just 78 players in this tournament and no cut line.

The first to look at is Brooks Koepka, who is the defending champ here in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He is the only winner of the last five to finish top 10 in fairways hit, which means that accuracy off the tee may not be all that important. He is 186th on tour in driving accuracy and just 173rd in greens in regulation, plus 164th in sand save percentage and those are not good rankings at all. Remember, that golfers need to navigate through 76 bunkers on this course. He is not good at scrambling and his medium-range game is not that good either. Koepka could struggle this week.

Rory McIlroy is again one of the favorites to win a tournament and I am kind of tired of seeing him this high on the list each and every week. I am aware that he is 2nd in the world golf rankings but he has not played all that well after the break. In his six starts before the break, he finished 5th or better all six times but since the restart, he has finished no better than 11th. Three of his finishes after the break have been at 32 or worse. Giving him a chance is the fact that Rory is 56th in greens in regulation, 15th in approach to the green, 9th around the green, and 3rd in tee-to-green. The one area that he does struggle some is sand save percentage where he is 98th. Rory could have his best finish since the restart but it will not be enough for him to win.

Jon Rahm won his last tournament played (the Memorial) and that win catapulted him to the top spot in the world golf rankings. He did take last week off and is ready to get back in action this week. Still, I’m not sure he can win this tournament, which he did finish 7th at last year. Prior to te win, Rahm finished 27th or worse in all four tournaments since the restart. He is 17th in greens in regulation, 6th off the tee, 45th in approach to the green, 33rd around the green and 24th in putting. He is just 126th in sand save percentage and that could be a problem for him. Rahm should finish in the top 10 but I don’t see him winning the tournament.

A few more that could make an impact but still come up short are Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Webb Simpson. Xander is 3rd in greens in regulation and 16th in approach to the green while Simpson is 14th and 11th in both categories respectively, plus 14th in putting. Cantlay checks in at 19th in greens in regulation, 7th in approach to the green, and 43rd in putting. All three have nice numbers in key categories and that makes them dangerous.

The last one I will take a look at is Collin Morikawa, who won the Workday Charity Open a couple of weeks ago. He had just come off the first missed cut of his career when he won the Workday but the following week he finished just 48th at the Memorial. Collin has had nine top 25 finishes and 5 top 10s in 16 events this year and he has some very nice stats that do make him dangerous. Morikawa is 1st on tour in approach to the green, 30th in greens in regulation, 47th in sand save percentage, and 6th in tee-to-green. The one area that could hold him back here is that he is 172nd in putting. Still, he is one to watch this week.

My Three Winners

Now, we get on to the fun stuff as here I have three players who I will be laying some coin on for this event. I feel that the winner will come from one of these three players.

Justin Thomas is 3rd on the odds list at +1200 and this should be a very good week for him. Thomas has been very consistent since the restart with three top 10s and a top 18 in four of his five starts after the break. He finished 2nd at the Workday Charity open a couple of weeks ago and he had a solid showing here last year with a 12th place finish. Now, let’s dig into some of his stats and he has some very good ones. Thomas comes in ranked 26th in greens in regulation, 3rd in sand save percentage, 3rd in approach to the green, 24th around the green and 1st in tee-to-green. Those are numbers that will allow him to have a very good showing here in Memphis.

Next, I will be going with Bryson DeChambeau at +1200. DeChambeau is having a solid season as he is 4th in the FedEx Cup standings and 7th in the world overall. He has eight top 10s in 12 events this year and he won the Rocket Mortgage a few weeks ago. Bryson is off of a missed cut at the memorial but his overall game is slump proof and he did finish 8th or better in his seven previous tournaments. DeChambeau is 1st in driving distance, 8th in greens in regulation, 12th in sand save percentage, 62nd in approach to the green, 7th in tee-to-green, and 7th in putting. I will look for Bryson to bounced back from missing the cut at the Memorial.

Lastly, I will be going with Daniel Berger at +2500. He did miss the cut at the Memorial a few weeks ago, but prior to that, he finished 9th or better in his previous five tournaments. That includes a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge back on June 14th and a tied for 3rd the next week at the RBC Heritage. Berger finished 1st here in both 2016 and 2017 so this is a course that he does like. He is 72nd in greens in regulation, 41st in approach to the green, 21st in sand save percentage, 18th in tee-to-green and 13th in putting. Those are some very consistent rankings and having already won this tournament twice, I feel he has what it takes to win it again.

Props

Tournament Matchup - Abraham Ancer -127 over Sergio Garcia

Tournament Matchup - Tommy Fleetwood -135 over Dustin Johnson

Top 5 Finish - Daniel Berger +550

Top 10 Finish - Viktor Hovland +250

Top 20 Finish - Tony Finau +125

Some Info Taken From PGATour.com