2020 Workday Charity Open - Preview, Odds, Predictions

The John Deere Classic was to be played this week but it was canceled earlier in the year due to the pandemic. Now, we will have the Workday Charity Open instead and it will take place at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. Last week, there were six top-20 players in that field and this week there are 10, including Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, and Justin Rose. We could see a very stacked leader board come Sunday.

Last week was a fun tournament to watch. Well, at least it was for me as I had Bryson DeChambeau to win it all and he did just that. He was down three shots heading to the 4th round and then won by three shots for his first win of the year. The course set up perfectly for him as it was a long one which rewarded the big hitters. DeChambeau entered that tournament 2nd on tour in driving distance and he didn’t disappoint as his average deriving distance was 350.6 yards. 16 of his drives went over 350 yards. Matthew Wolf was second with just seven.

We are not likely to see a bombs away approach this week as we saw last week. At the Rocket Mortgage Classic, there were many very long holes that were also very straight, and that helped out the big hitters immensely. This course is pretty long as well, but the difference is that they are many holes that are not straight, plus we note that water is in play on 11 of the holes. This course will require a bit more precision off the tee and also it will not favor many of the big hitters. Now let’s go over several players to watch in this tournament and then I will have my prediction for the tournament, along with some props.

Workday Charity Open Favorites: Courtesy Of Lines&Odds

Players To Watch

For the Workday Charity Open, we will be looking for players that have good rankings in tee-to-green and driving accuracy. One player that does stand out a bit is Hideki Matsuyama. He is just 110th in driving accuracy but he is also 2nd on tour in tee-to-green, 15th in greens in regulation, and 6th in approach to the green. Those are very good numbers. Matsuyama is just 200th in putting, but this course will have slow green speeds and that could help him. He has just four top 10s in 13 starts this year but this is a course that may very well play to his strengths and he did win this tournament back in 2014.

Next, we will take a look at the favorite, Justin Thomas, who is ranked 5th in the world overall and 2nd in FedEx points. He has had mixed results here with two top tens and three missed cuts in his last five trips here. Since the restart, Thomas has had two top 10s and a missed cut in his three starts. He missed cut came last week and the last two times that happened this year, he finished 3rd and 6th in his next event. Justin could be ready for a bounceback event. He is just 157th in driving accuracy but also 4th in tee-to-green 28th around the green, 7th in approach to green and 23rd off the tee. Thomas is definitely one to watch.

Let’s move on to Patrick Cantlay, who is the last PGA player to win on this course. Last year, he shot a 19 under par to win the Memorial here, and in 2018, he finished 4th here. He has played well on this course of late and that makes him dangerous. Cantlay has finished in the top 17 in five of his six events this year, including two top 10s and an 11th placed finish at the Traveler’s Championship a couple of weeks ago. This course sets up very well for Patrick as he is 41st in driving accuracy, 7th in tee-to-green, 5th in approach to the green, and 4th in greens in regulation. Putting should be easier on this course and he is already 49th in that category. This is a course that sets up nicely for him.

Brooks Koepka has taken a couple of weeks off after a 7th placed finish at the RBC Heritage and he is 2nd on the odds list but I’m not so sure it’s warranted. Koepka is just 192nd in driving accuracy, 176th in greens in regulation, and 163rd in approach to the green. They are not great rankings overall and we also note that he has just one top 25 finish in seven events this year. That was his last time out. Is Koepka ready to put it all together? We shall see.

Jon Rahm is the number two player in the world overall and he does have a good chance at winning. He has missed the cut, finished 33rd, and 37th in his three starts since the restart. Still, Rahm took last week off to regroup and it could help him here. This is a course that he could have success on. The last two winners on this course were 51st and 58th in driving accuracy and Rahm is ranked 53rd. We also note that he is ranked 7th off the tee, 16th in tee-to-green, and 19th in putting. He also has five top 10s in eight starts this year. Can Rahm get back on track? That remains to be seen.

Collin Morikawa could be an interesting player to watch. Can he bounceback from missing the first cut in his career. He had made 22 in a row prior to missing the cut at the Traveler’s, two weeks ago. Prior to that, he finished 64th at the RBC Heritage. He is 52nd in driving accuracy but he has just four top 10s in his 14 starts this year. Can Morikawa bounce back? Xander Schauffele finished 20th at the Travelers Championship a couple of weeks ago and he is ranked 11th in the world overall. He had four top 10s in his first four events this year but he has just one in six of his last seven events. Xander is 9th off the tee and 10th in tee-to-green but he is also 105th in driving accuracy.

Let’s take a look at one more and he is Viktor Hovland who is the only player in the field that is Top-10 in both off the tee (10th) and approach to the green (8th). Hovland is also 17th in tee-to-green and 45th in driving accuracy. Those are all good rankings for this course. He has just two Top-10 finishes in his 13 events and Hovland hasn’t finished better than 11th in each of his last six events. Still, this is a course that sets up well for him and he could be used in some props.

Tournament Winner

There are some very good golfers in this event but there are two that really stand out to me. Hideki Matsuyama is the first one as he has some very good rankings for this course and he did win here back in 2014. 2nd on tour in tee-to-green, 15th in greens in regulation, and 6th in approach to the green, and the greens will remind him of his native Japan. Patrick Cantlay will also have a good showing in this one, especially since he finished first here last year and 4th the year before. This course sets up very well for Patrick as he is 41st in driving accuracy, 7th in tee-to-green, 5th in approach to the green, and 4th in greens in regulation. I feel that both will have a very good showing this week but I can choose just one winner and that is Hideki. This is the tournament that he gets back on track in.

Props

Tournament Matchup: Viktor Hovland -108 over Brooks Koepka

Tournament Matchup: Collin Morikawa -115 over Rickie Fowler

Top 5 Finish: Patrick Cantlay +250

Top 10 Finish: Jordan Spieth

Will There Be A Hole In One: No -140