Cole Custer Springs Massive Upset, Takes Checkered Flag in Quaker State 400
The Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway capped a wild four days of racing in the Bluegrass State. As was fitting for such a crazy weekend, things went right down to the wire before things were decided. To continue with the unpredictability of the weekend, which started with back to back Xfinity Series wins for Austin Cindric, it was the longest of long shots that ended up taking the checkered flag when all was said and done.
It was Cole Custer, who went off at 500-1 odds at several sportsbooks, that ended up taking the lead on the final lap and winning the race for his first career victory on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit. There was a bet of $90 on PointsBet that would have netted $45,000 had the bettor stuck it out. He reportedly cashed out midway through the race and earned a paltry $120. As it turned out, no one would have expected Custer to win as he was sixth with two laps to go before taking advantage of several miscues as well as a strong push courtesy of Matt DiBenedetto to get past Martin Truex Jr. in a four-wide run coming out of Turn 1 and held on for the victory.
Custer became the first rookie to win a non-rain-shortened race since Juan Pablo Montoya accomplished that feat in 2007. Meanwhile, he’s the first rookie running a full season to earn a victory since Chris Buescher took the checkered flag in a rain-shortened Pennsylvania 400 at Pocono on August 1, 2016. That race ran 138 of a scheduled 160 laps before being called due to the inclement weather, which had moved the race from Sunday to Monday. Martin Truex Jr. finished second with DiBenedetto, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch rounding out the top five in the race. Custer’s margin of victory was .271 seconds and there were 13 lead changes along the way between nine drivers.
Aric Almirola led the most laps in the race, holding the advantage in 128 of the 267 laps, which was 38 more laps than he had led all season leading into Sunday. He won the first stage of the race and ended up finishing eighth, snapping his five-race run of top-five finishes. Truex Jr. held the lead in 57 laps, Brad Keselowski, who won stage two of the race, led 34 and Ryan Blaney was up front for 18 laps. Harvick led 11 laps, Kyle Busch held the top spot for nine, Custer was up front for five, William Byron four and DiBenedetto one. There were four lead changes in the final 18 laps of the race with the last one obviously the most important. The five laps Custer led were the first laps he’s led on the NASCAR Cup series this season. There were eight cautions totaling 42 laps in the race as well, none more important than the one that spanned laps 262 to 265 after Matt Kenseth spun out in turn four.
Joey Logano, DiBenedetto, Blaney, Alex Bowman and Truex Jr. each were in the top 10 of the race after both the first and second stages. Of that group, Truex Jr. (second), Blaney (sixth) and DiBenedetto (third) finished in the top 10 when the checkered flag was waved in addition to their strong runs early in the race. Logano ended up finishing 15th in the race while Bowman was 19th after a strong run. Jimmie Johnson, who was cleared earlier this week after testing positive for COVID-19. That caused him to snap his consecutive race streak at 663 as he missed the race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. He ran near the front before spinning out on lap 255 and ended up 18th in the race. Kyle Busch, the odds on favorite who has won three times at Kentucky Speedway, struggled all afternoon long and ended up 21st.
From a betting perspective, it was a mixed bag if you read part one and two of our top prop bets preview for the race Sunday. We did hit on Kurt Busch to finish in the top five (+300) as he had a chance to steal it late only to see Custer slide through for the win. Almirola finishing eighth allowed us to hit on the prop of him ending up in the top 10 (+100), marking his sixth straight top-10 showing in the process. We also hit on tabbing Blaney to record the best finish in Group B despite having the longest odds at +275 as his sixth-place run outshined Denny Hamlin (12th), Logano (15th) and Chase Elliott (23rd) in the race.
The late rally by Harvick cost us a potential hit on him finishing outside the top five (-134) in the race. In addition, we took a tough loss on pegging Toyota as the manufacturer of the winning car (+160) and Joe Gibbs Racing to be the team of the winning car (+155) with Truex Jr. ending up being pushed out of the lead in the final lap.
Coming out of Sunday’s race, Harvick leads the point standings by 88 points over Keselowski. Blaney is third, 95 points off the pace, while Elliott (100 points behind) and Logano (111 points off the lead) round out the top five in that department. In the playoff standings, Harvick leads Hamlin by 122 points with both drivers having four victories. Keselowski and Logano stand third and fourth with both drivers owning a pair of wins while Blaney is the top point-getter among drivers with one win to hold down the fifth spot.
The next race for the NASCAR Cup Series circuit comes with a pair of mid-week races at Bristol Motor Speedway. It’s the All-Star Open and the All-Star Race coming to you from the World’s Fastest Half-Mile on Wednesday night with $1 million up for grabs to the winner. The race was moved from Charlotte Motor Speedway last month. Green flag time for the All-Star Open is at 7 pm ET with the All-Star Race slated for 8:30 pm ET. Television coverage is to be provided by FS1. Up to 30,000 fans will be in attendance for the race, which is about 20 percent capacity at the track. Following the All-Star races, the next points race comes from Texas Motor Speedway with the Cole Custer0 on Sunday, July 19.