NASCAR Cup Series Darlington 500k Picks, Fades & Value Plays - 5/20/20

If Sunday's race wasn't enough live action for you, well then I have good news. NASCAR is back again with another Cup Series race Wednesday night at 7:30 PM ET. The starting grid for the Darlington 500k is already set, and NASCAR used an interesting format while making it using Sunday's race results.

The top 20 finishers from Sunday's race were inverted and that will be their starting position. For example, Ryan Preece holds the pole because he finished 20th while Kevin Harvick will start 20th because he won Sunday. The remaining places below will start in their finishing spot from Sunday, and any new entries will start at the back of the pack.

Betting on NASCAR can be very profitable, you just have to know who to play and who to fade. Luckily, I have a few great plays and fades as well as a few sleepers/value picks. I see a lot of potential Wednesday night from a few drivers with great odds, and I'm very confident that I can win both yourself and I money with these picks.

Willie's Best Plays

Denny Hamlin (+750)

Keep an eye on the number 11 FedEx car Wednesday night. Denny ran really well for most of the day Sunday, he just couldn't seem to get all the way there. Denny is a veteran driver who knows how to get into victory lane. He's won twice before in 16 Cup Series starts at Darlington, and he will be right in the mix for another win here.

Brad Keselowski (+900)

I'm hoping on the Brad-Bus also. Keselowski has only won once at this track in 12 starts, but he has finished top ten in half of those races. He found himself running towards the top of the field for a good part of Sunday's race and even led 80 laps. Keselowski at 9 to 1 is certainly worth a look because he will be towards the top of the field yet again.

Chase Elliott (+900)

I was a big fan of Chase's dad Bill, and I'm also a big fan of Chase. He's still newer to the Cup Series scene, but he drives like a veteran. Elliott was also right in the mix Sunday, although he did not lead a lap. I wouldn't go crazy on this bet because he only has six career wins and three that weren't on road courses. However, given how good he was running Sunday, he's worth a shot at 9 to 1.

Willie's Fades

Kevin Harvick (+425)

Harvick is the favorite to win once again Wednesday, but I wouldn't bet on it. NASCAR is running at night Wednesday which will change the entire landscape. It's hard enough to win two in a row anywhere in NASCAR but especially Darlington. The track is nicknamed "The Track Too Tough to Tame" for a reason. I wouldn't expect a repeater from Harvick Wednesday night.

Alex Bowman (+850)

One of the reasons I'm fading Bowman is the same as why I'm fading Harvick. He had a very good showing Sunday afternoon, and it's extremely tough to repeat results at Darlington. The other reason is his youth. He's only won two Cup Series races and never at Darlington. Sunday was his first top ten finish on the track in five starts, and I look for him to return to the middle of the pack.

Kyle Busch (+700)

I love any opportunity I have to fade Kyle Busch, my least favorite of the Busch brothers. Kyle didn't have a good car Sunday and I'm sure he'll be the first to tell you. He's always been inconsistent and you never know which version of him you will see. Given how poorly he ran Sunday, they obviously don't have the right setup for Darlington. Look for another bad run for Kyle.

Willie's Value Plays

Jimmie Johnson (+2200)

I have to take a shot at Jimmie with these great odds. He had a great car Sunday and was on the way to winning his first race stage this year before misjudging a turn on the final lap of the stage and wrecking. It would be some great nostalgia to see the 48 car back in victory lane, and the veteran has a decent chance of doing so if the team keeps the same general car setup from Sunday.

Matt Kenseth (+3000)

We're looking for a little bit of nostalgia here as well, but I can't pass this one up either. Matt Kenseth came out of retirement to take over Kyle Larson's seat, and his first race back Sunday showed great results. He turned up a 10th place finish in his first race since 2018, and I look for him to build on this success Wednesday night. Kenseth can be a very sneaky, great play at 30 to 1.

Clint Bowyer (+5000)

The last longshot I'm taking Wednesday night will be another veteran in Clint Bowyer. He's quite possibly the most entertaining driver in NASCAR, and he's fun to root for. Clint hasn't found victory lane a ton in his career and never at Darlington, but what a better time than ever for his first win on the track. He didn't have a terrible car Sunday, and who knows, maybe Clint can pull a trick out his sleeve at a hefty 50 to 1 price.