Top Prop Bets for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
The NASCAR Cup Series rolls on to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Sunday afternoon. After seeing a crazy finish over the final dozen laps at The World’s Fastest Half-Mile last week where Brad Keselowski came up with the victory by taking the lead on the final lap, he returns here, where he has won two of the last three races. That includes last season’s race, where he knocked off Martin Truex Jr. by a margin of .218 seconds to earn the checkered flag. We already gave you a rundown on the background of the track in an effort to give you information to make the best bets. Today, we take a look at what we feel are the best options to wager on for Sunday’s action.
All the odds for these prop bets are courtesy of DraftKings.
Ford as Manufacturer of Winning Car (+140): While Chevrolet dominated the track between 2010 and 2016, they’ve had their struggles of late. Chevy won five of the seven races at the track during that span with Toyota taking the other two. However, the last three races here at Atlanta have gone to Ford with Keselowski taking the checkered flag in 2017 and 2019 while Kevin Harvick earned the win in 2018. Keselowski is coming off a win last week and he has been solid here in his career. Seeing how well Ford has run here in the last couple of years, you have to give them the advantage. With Keselowski, Harvick and Joey Logano leading the way, Ford has a trio of excellent options.
Kevin Harvick to Win (+500): This dovetails with the above prop of Ford winning the race. Harvick has led the most laps here among active drivers with 1,197, which is nearly 400 more than second-place Kurt Busch in that department. He has two wins, eight top-five finishes and 14 top-10 finishes in his 29 races at Atlanta. Harvick has won two poles and finished in the top nine in eight of the last nine races here at Atlanta dating back to 2011. That includes six straight runs in the top nine, including three top-five finishes in the last five years. He’s led at least 116 laps in five of the last six races here and should have an excellent shot at winning Sunday.
Kurt Busch to Finish in Top Ten (-137): Kurt Busch has been better this season than he was last year. He currently stands 10th in the NASCAR Cup Series standings. On the year, he has recorded three top-five finishes and six top-10 showings in nine races on the year. He has finished in the top seven in six of the last seven races this season, including a pair of third-place showings. In his last three races, he has finished seventh, fifth and seventh. During his last four starts here at Atlanta, Busch has run fourth, seventh, eighth and third. With his recent success, both at Atlanta and recently this season, a top 10 run should be in the cards here.
Brad Keselowski to Finish in the Top Five (+138): It’s hard to find many drivers that are on more of a roll than Keselowski right now. In addition to winning two of the last three races here at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and he finished second in the race he didn’t win in that stretch. Keselowski has two wins, four top-five showings and seven top-10s in his 11 races here at Atlanta. This season, he has two wins, four top-fives and six top-10s in nine races on the year. In his last four races overall this season, he has two wins along with fourth and seventh-place showings to his credit. Given that momentum, he should finish in the top five.
Kurt Busch to Record Best Finish in Group C (+250): We talked above about Busch’s success this season and how well he has run at Atlanta in the last few years. He’s second among active drivers when it comes to laps led with 802, trailing only Harvick in that department. By comparison, Ryan Blaney hasn’t finished better than 12th in his four races at Atlanta in his career with two of those finishes ending up 22nd or worse. Jimmie Johnson has five wins here to lead active drivers but he has finished 19th, 27th and 24th in the last three years. Erik Jones has run only three races here, finishing 14th, 11th and seventh in those races. He is yet to lead a lap in that stretch though, which makes Busch a pretty solid option.
Martin Truex Jr. to Finish in the Top 10 (-220): Truex Jr. has been up and down this season as he finished 20th or worse in three of his first four starts this season. He then finished in the top 10 in four straight races but turned in another 20th-place showing at Bristol last week. While he hasn’t recorded a win in 21 races at Atlanta Motor Speedway, he does have four top-five finishes and nine top-10 showings in those outings. With that said, Truex Jr. has finished in the top eight of seven of the last eight races here with five straight finishes in the top eight. He was second to Keselowski last year and should finish in the top 10.
Entering this race, Harvick leads the NASCAR Cup standings by 24 points over Joey Logano. Chase Elliott is third, 45 points behind Harvick, with Keselowski (55 points back) and Alex Bowman (81 points behind) rounding out the top five.