Top Prop Bets for the GEICO 500, Part I

As we near the weekend, it means only one thing for NASCAR fans: it’s one day closer to green flag day. This week, that means one of the most exciting weekends on the track as it means a trip to Talladega, where you can see some of the fastest racing of the season. It also means that the potential for a massive crash that can wipe out half the field in the blink of an eye. We’ve seen it before and it’s of little surprise when “The Big One” does hit, it’s just a matter of when. We’ve given you some back history on the track and information about which drivers have had the most success here. Today, we take a look at some of the top prop bets for the race, with all odds brought to you by DraftKings.

Ryan Blaney to Win (+1100): It’s hard to jump on anyone to win here, just because of the tapered spacer that keeps all the cars capped near the same top speed, which can put 30 to 40 cars in a compressed space. That’s prime ground for an accident that can take out a ton of cars in an instant. With that said, Blaney has finished in the top four in five of his last six races overall and took the checkered flag in the last race here by winning the 500 on October 14, 2019. That gives him the experience of winning here and he’s led laps in eight of the last 10 races at the superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega. You have to give serious consideration to him here given his hot stretch of late.

Chase Elliott to Finish in Top Three (+250): If there’s a driver that has been on a roll since the circuit came back from the pause for the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s Elliott. He’s finished in the top eight in six of the eight races since the return at Darlington last month. That includes a win and a pair of second-place finishes in that stretch. He’s run eight races in his career here at Talladega and finished in the top eight in half of them. Seeing how his father, Bill Elliott, was great here in the restrictor plate era of tampering speeds down a bit, it makes sense that his son can turn in another solid run here to make this a winner.

Kurt Busch To Finish in Top Five (+300): Busch struggled last week at Homestead-Miami in the Dixie Vodka 400 but he tends to race pretty well on the superspeedway tracks. He has no wins in his 38 runs here at Talladega but he does have eight top-five finishes and 20 finishes in the top 10 in his career. Busch has finished in the top six in four of his last seven races here at Talladega. While he was 28th in the 500 last October, he’s been running strong of late and should bounce back from his showing last week. Look for him to turn in a good run that puts him right in the top five when all is said and done.

Aric Almirola to Finish in the Top 10 (+105): There’s not a high return on investment in this one but that’s because Almirola has had some pretty solid success in his career on this track. He has logged seven straight top-10 runs here, including a victory in the 500 back in 2018. With runs of eighth, fourth, fifth, seventh, first, ninth and fourth in those seven races, you have to think that he’s figured things out on this track. Based on that, and barring a massive collision that takes out Almirola with a bunch of other cars, you have to give him a nod for the top 10 here to run his streak to eight straight top-10s at Talladega.

Clint Bowyer to Finish in the Top 10 (+125): This one is a bit of a shot in the dark when you get down to it. While Bowyer has won twice, finished in the top-five seven times and in the top-10 in 13 of his 28 races here at Talladega, things have been a struggle in recent years. Bowyer finished second here in the 500 race in 2018 that Almirola won but the fact remains that was his lone finish better than 14th in his last seven runs on the track. He was 29th and 23rd in the two races here last season and he really needs to find a way to turn things around. This could be a chance for him to make an impact.

Stay tuned for Part II of our top prop options as we take a look at some more options for you to potentially cash in on for this weekend’s race.

Author Profile
Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.