Top Prop Bets for the GEICO 500, Part II

As we near the weekend, it means only one thing for NASCAR fans: it’s one day closer to green flag day. This week, that means one of the most exciting weekends on the track as it means a trip to Talladega, where you can see some of the fastest racing of the season. It also means that the potential for a massive crash that can wipe out half the field in the blink of an eye. We’ve seen it before and it’s of little surprise when “The Big One” does hit, it’s just a matter of when. We’ve given you some back history on the track and information about which drivers have had the most success here. In addition, we covered some of the top bets for individual drivers in part one of our two-part series. Today, we take a look at some of the top prop bets for the race, with all odds brought to you by DraftKings.

Ford to Manufacture the Winning Car (+115): Ford has been the dominant manufacturer at Talladega in recent years. The oval has won eight of the last nine races here with Chase Elliott’s win in the spring last year the lone interruption in that stretch. Ford has claimed 11 of the last 15 races here dating back to the fall 2012 race, and with several major drivers under their wing, the odds are favorable for them to prevail. Ryan Blaney, who we tabbed as our favorite to win the race, took the checkered flag here in October…driving a Ford. That’s all I think we need to say about that at this point in time.

Over on Over/Under 26.5 Lead Changes: Over the last three years, there have been an average of 26.3 lead changes at the track but that number has skewed down a bit thanks to only 15 lead changes in the 1000Bulbs.com 500 in 2018. Last year was more like the norm for Talladega as the GEICO 500 in 2019 saw 38 lead changes and the 1000Bulbs.com 500 had a whopping 46 lead changes when all was said and done. Seeing how that’s more the trend here when you have 30 to 35 cars that can all rip along at 190-plus miles per hour and a change can happen multiple times on a lap, you have to think we’re going over that mark here.

Aric Almirola to Post Best Finish in Group C (+240): We already discussed how well Almirola has run at Talladega in the last seven races here. Seeing how we have him tabbed for another good run here, you have to think that he’ll turn in another quality run here. Seeing how Clint Bowyer (+260) has struggled at Talladega in the last few years, along with the inconsistency of Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+240) makes them less than palatable options. Alex Bowman (+255) has struggled of late, finishing 18th or worse in five of the last seven races. Throw in that he has just two top-10 runs in nine starts at Talladega and it’s hard to put much stock in him here.

Chase Elliott to Drive Top Chevrolet (+350): As we mentioned above, Elliott is the lone non-Ford driver to win here in the last nine races as he claimed this race last April. We expect him to have a strong run given his success at Talladega in his career and the fact that his bloodline has had sustained success here over the past several decades. While Kurt Busch (+650) is a tempting option as well, we projected Elliott to finish ahead of Busch in the race, thereby giving him the advantage in this particular prop. You could lean on either of them or perhaps hedge your bets by wagering on both: it’s your call.

Brad Keselowski to Finish Ahead of Joey Logano (-115): This one is going to be interesting as both guys have had success at the track in their respective careers. Keselowski has won five times at Talladega while Logano has three checkered flags to his credit. With that said, Logano has been fading since his strong start to the year. He won two of the first four races before the pause for the COVID-19 pandemic but has only three top-six finishes in the last eight races since the restart. Keselowski has struggled at Talladega the last couple of seasons but it’s hard to argue with five victories here. Look for him to finish slightly ahead of Logano when all is said and done here.

Author Profile
Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.